35-probability&decisions

35 probabilityampdecisions

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Unformatted text preview: HigherCogni+onII Probabilis+cReasoningandDecision Making Whatisra+onality? Claim:Manisara+onalanimal Descrip+vetheory Howdowereason? Norma+vetheory Howshouldwereason? Howshouldwereason? Formallogic Logicdealswithcertainty Wefaceconsiderableuncertainty Probabilitytheory Probabilitytheorydealswithdegreesofcertainty Butmostofthereasoningwedoistoinformour decisions Fromreasoningtodecisions Expectedvalue E = P(x i )U(x i ) Theexpectedgain fromadecision Sumoverall possibleoutcomes ofdecision Probabilityofeach outcome Value(oru+lity)of thatoutcome Fromreasoningtodecisions Expectedvalue E = P(x i )U(x i ) Pay$1toplay Rollonedie Win$4foreven Lose$1forodd E = 3/6 $4 + 3/6 -$4 = $1.50 $1.50 > $1.00 Whatisra+onality? Claim:Manisara+onalanimal Descrip+vetheory Howdowereason? Norma+vetheory Howshouldwereason? Whatisra+onality? Claim:Manisara+onalanimal Descrip+vetheory Howdowereason? Norma+vetheory Expectedu+lity Whatisra+onality? Claim:Manisara+onalanimal Descrip+vetheory Expectedu+lity? Norma+vetheory Expectedu+lity From...
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This note was uploaded on 04/29/2010 for the course PSYCH 85 211 taught by Professor Theissen during the Spring '10 term at Carnegie Mellon.

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