35-probability&decisions

5 20 50 80 95 casscellsetal1978 medicaldiagnosis

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Unformatted text preview: ldiagnosis Adiseaseaffects1/1000people Thereisatestforthedisease Ifyouhavethedisease,testis100%posi+ve Ifyoudon'thavethedisease,testis95%nega+ve Arandompersontestsposi+ve AtHarvardMedicalSchool: 18%say"2%"(correctanswer) 45%say"95%" (Casscellsetal.,1978) Medicaldiagnosis KahnemanandTversky Problemsolvingheuris+cs Heuris+c A"ruleofthumb" Fastbutnotaccurate100%ofthe+me Failureleadsto"cogni+veillusion" Failureofvisual processingheuris+cslead to"op+calillusions" Representa+veness "Lindais31yearsold,single,outspokenandvery bright.Shemajoredinphilosophy.Asastudent,she wasdeeplyconcernedwithissuesofdiscrimina+on andsocialjus+ce,andalsopar+cipatedin an+nucleardemonstra+ons." Whichismorelikely? (1)Lindaisabankteller (2)Lindaisabanktellerandisac+veinthefeministmovement (Kahneman&Tversky,1983) Representa+veness Whichismorelikely? (1)Lindaisabankteller (2)Lindaisabanktellerandisac+veinthefeministmovement "Conjunc+onfallacy" P(X&Y)can'tbegreaterthanP(X) 85%choose(2) Representa#venessheuris#c TheprobabilitythatAisfromCategoryBisjudgedby howrepresenta5veAisofB (Kahneman&Tversky,1983) Availability Whichismorel...
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This note was uploaded on 04/29/2010 for the course PSYCH 85 211 taught by Professor Theissen during the Spring '10 term at Carnegie Mellon.

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