35-probability&decisions

5 20 50 80 95 casscellsetal1978 medicaldiagnosis

Info iconThis preview shows page 1. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

Unformatted text preview: ldiagnosis Adiseaseaffects1/1000people Thereisatestforthedisease Ifyouhavethedisease,testis100%posi+ve Ifyoudon'thavethedisease,testis95%nega+ve Arandompersontestsposi+ve AtHarvardMedicalSchool: 18%say"2%"(correctanswer) 45%say"95%" (Casscellsetal.,1978) Medicaldiagnosis KahnemanandTversky Problemsolvingheuris+cs Heuris+c A"ruleofthumb" Fastbutnotaccurate100%ofthe+me Failureleadsto"cogni+veillusion" Failureofvisual processingheuris+cslead to"op+calillusions" Representa+veness "Lindais31yearsold,single,outspokenandvery bright.Shemajoredinphilosophy.Asastudent,she wasdeeplyconcernedwithissuesofdiscrimina+on andsocialjus+ce,andalsopar+cipatedin an+nucleardemonstra+ons." Whichismorelikely? (1)Lindaisabankteller (2)Lindaisabanktellerandisac+veinthefeministmovement (Kahneman&Tversky,1983) Representa+veness Whichismorelikely? (1)Lindaisabankteller (2)Lindaisabanktellerandisac+veinthefeministmovement "Conjunc+onfallacy" P(X&Y)can'tbegreaterthanP(X) 85%choose(2) Representa#venessheuris#c TheprobabilitythatAisfromCategoryBisjudgedby howrepresenta5veAisofB (Kahneman&Tversky,1983) Availability Whichismorel...
View Full Document

Ask a homework question - tutors are online