35-probability&decisions

Esmangvalue dannextweekiwill beconducnga15min

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Unformatted text preview: +ngvalue Dan:"NextweekIwill beconduc+nga15min. poetryreading" Group1:Willyoupay $2toa^end? Group2:Willyou accept$2toa^end? Bothgroups:Willyou a^endforfree? (Arielyetal.,2006) DanAriely Es+ma+ngvalue Group Payto a=end? 3% 59% A=endfor free? Pay$2 Accept$2 (Arielyetal.,2006) Es+ma+ngvalue Group Payto a=end? 3% 59% A=endfor free? 35% 8% Pay$2 Accept$2 Peopledon'tknowwhatthingsareworthtothemwithout somethingtocompareitto (Arielyetal.,2006) Es+ma+ngvalueforriskydecisions Adiseasebreakoutwillkill600people Twopreven+onprogramshavebeen proposed: ProgramA:200peoplewillbesaved ProgramB:1/3chance600peoplewillbesaved, 2/3chancenoonewillbesaved MostpeoplepreferProgramA (Tversky&Kahneman,1981) Es+ma+ngvalueforriskydecisions Adiseasebreakoutwillkill600people Twopreven+onprogramshavebeen proposed: ProgramC:400peoplewilldie ProgramD:1/3chancenoonewilldie,2/3chance 600peoplewilldie MostpeoplepreferProgramD (Tversky&Kahneman,1981) Framingeffects ProgramA:200people willbesaved ProgramB:1/3chance 600peoplewillbe saved,2/3chanceno onewillbesaved ProgramC:400people willdie ProgramD:1/3chance noonewilldie,2/3 chance600peoplewill die Framingeffects People'svalueschangedependingonwhatishighlighted (Tversky&Kahneman,1981) Fromreasoningtodecisions Expectedvalue E = P(x i )U(x i ) = Probability Value Heuris+csleadto errors Wearen'talwayssure orconsistent Whatisra+onality? Claim:Manisara+onalanimal Framingeffectsinmonkeys Adver+se vs. Deliver Monkeys prefer vs. 50% 50% vs. vs. 50% 50% Monkeys prefer Capuchinmonkey (Santos&Chen,2009) Summary Makingdecisionsinvolvesassessing Probabilityofoutcomes Valueofoutcomes Peoplearesome+mespoorates+ma+ngboth ofthese Arepeoplereallythatirra+onal? Yes:Wemakesystema+cmistakes No:Howcommonarethesemistakes? Researchbiasforsurprisingresults...
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This note was uploaded on 04/29/2010 for the course PSYCH 85 211 taught by Professor Theissen during the Spring '10 term at Carnegie Mellon.

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