Lecture5_1 - The Presidential Primary The Presidential...

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Unformatted text preview: The Presidential Primary The Presidential Primary Process Process PART II: FRONTLOADING, THE PART II: FRONTLOADING, THE HORSE RACE, AND HORSE RACE, AND MOMENTUM MOMENTUM Where We’re Going Today: • Present a model of the presidential primary process in which – 1. Candidate performance in early primary states is important to candidate performance in later states – 2. Media coverage focuses largely on who’s winning and loosing (“horse race coverage”) – 3. Voters make choices based on who’s winning and losing Where We’re Going Today: • Together, these features inject a bias into the presidential nomination process – A bias that advantages winners of early primaries • An advantage rooted in information asymmetries – Momentum (“Big Mo”) – The bandwagon effect – A bias that provides the news media with a non- trivial role in selection of viable candidates for the parties’ presidential nominations Bandwagon Effect Momentum Voter Dynamic Candidate Dynamic “ “ Momentum” and “The Bandwagon Momentum” and “The Bandwagon Effect” (related ideas but not identical) Effect” (related ideas but not identical) Early Primary Early Primary Victories Victories The Frontloading Dynamic The Frontloading Dynamic 2. 1. 3. State Migration to Earlier Dates Period of Greatest Uncertainty, Competition, and Excitement I O W A N H S C C A N Y M A Candidate Money and Organizational Effort Media Frontloading? Media Frontloading? • In 2008, 87 delegates (2%) to Democratic National Convention selected by IA&NH • In 2008, 64 delegates (2.2%) to Republican National Convention selected by IA&NH Media Frontloading? Media Frontloading? • If media allocates primary coverage in proportion to a state’s relative important to the overall delegate count – IA & NH combined should account for roughly 2% of all coverage for primary season Media Frontloading? Media Frontloading? • Actual Actual coverage of IA/NH primaries: coverage of IA/NH primaries: – 1976 – 41% 1976 – 41% – 1984 – 29% 1984 – 29% – 1988 – 63% 1988 – 63% – 1992 – 33%. 1992 – 33%. – 1996 – 45% 1996 – 45% The Frontloading Dynamic The Frontloading Dynamic 2. 1. 3. State Migration to Earlier Dates Period of Greatest Uncertainty, Competition, and Excitement I O W A N H S C C A N Y M A Candidate Money and Organizational Effort “ “ The Bandwagon Effect” and The Bandwagon Effect” and Momentum Momentum • An early primary victory brings – Heightened free media coverage – Increased national visibility – Greater name recognition • All of which draws bandwagoning voters in later primary states to the side of the early primary victor – And puts momentum momentum behind the early victor “ “ The Bandwagon Effect” and The Bandwagon Effect” and Momentum Momentum • The idea is to generate enough momentum to carry the victorious candidate into the later states – 1. Where candidates are typically less well- organized...
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Lecture5_1 - The Presidential Primary The Presidential...

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