Lecture5_3 - IN-CLASS VIDEO VIDEO TITLE: "TRUE...

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Unformatted text preview: IN-CLASS VIDEO VIDEO TITLE: "TRUE BELIEVERS: LIFE INSIDE THE DEAN CAMPAIGN" Study Guide Question on Video Using the video "True Believers" as your source, identify and briefly discuss two factors that help explain Howard Dean's rise to front-runner status in the period leading up to the start of 2004 presidential primary season. Identify and briefly discuss three factors that help account for his collapse. collapse Preparation for Midterm RealVideo version of "True Believers" also on class website Click on "Additional Links" to access Look under "In-Class Videos" The Perils of Front-Runner Status The Perils of Front-Runner Status Is it possible to get ahead of the pack: Too far? Too fast? Too soon? If so, what might happen? The Perils of Peaking Too Soon 25 22 D 20 E A N 15 National Support for Howard Dean Among Democrats 14 10 11 19 Iowa S U P 10 P O R 5T 8 3 4 Dean 0 February 1920, 2003 May 21-22, 2003 July 16-17, 2003 September 3- November 18- December 30, 4, 2003 19, 2003 2003 January 1, 2004 January 14- February 5-6, 15, 2004 2004 Howard Dean's Rise to Front Runner Status Howard Dean's Rise to Front Runner Status #1. Effective Money Raiser From third in the money race (2ND quarter, 2003) Behind both John Kerry and John Edwards To first in 3RD/4TH quarters of 2003 Howard Dean's Rise to Front Runner Status #2. Effective use of internet to raise money E.g., 3rd quarter 2003 financial reports (CNN report [10/17/03]) $15 million raised (almost 1/2 of all $ raised by Democratic candidates in 3rd quarter) 1/2 ($7.4 million) raised via internet donations 169,000 donations Average size of donation: $74 Democratic Fundraising Totals as of December 31, 2003 $13.6 $13.7 1 $13.7 LIEBERMAN GEPHARDT CLARK EDWARDS $15.7 $19.4 KERRY $40.9 DEAN $0.0 $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 $25.0 $30.0 $35.0 $40.0 $45.0 $50.0 Millions Democratic Fundraising Totals as of December 31, 2003 $13.6 $13.7 1 $13.7 LIEBERMAN GEPHARDT CLARK EDWARDS $15.7 $19.4 KERRY $40.9 DEAN $0.0 $5.0 Dean $10.0 Democrat to$25.0 $30.0 first $15.0 $20.0 forgo federal matching funds Millions $35.0 $40.0 $45.0 $50.0 Democratic Fundraising Totals as of December 31, 2003 $13.6 $13.7 1 $13.7 LIEBERMAN GEPHARDT CLARK EDWARDS BARACK OBAMA $129 million (2007) $15.7 $19.4 KERRY $40.9 DEAN $0.0 $5.0 Dean $10.0 Democrat to$25.0 $30.0 first $15.0 $20.0 forgo federal matching funds Millions $35.0 $40.0 $45.0 $50.0 Howard Dean's Rise to Front Runner Status #3. Unique grassroots organization that exploits new technology (the internet) Not only a tool for fundraising, a tool for social networking Communication, participation, mobilization Howard Dean: "This is a campaign about empowering people" Howard Dean's Rise to Front Runner Status #4. Populist strategy feeds image of an insurgent war being waged against an entrenched party establishment Rebellion against Clinton-era DLC moderation Dean: "I am from the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party" Howard Dean's Rise to Front Runner Status #5. Strong anti-Iraq War message that energizes Democratic Party base Clear, unequivocal, solitary voice Howard Dean's Rise to Front Runner Status #6. High profile endorsements 2 largest labor unions in country SEIU (1.6 million members) AFSCME (1.4 million members) Howard Dean's Rise to Front Runner Status #6. High profile endorsements 2 largest labor unions in country SEIU (1.6 million members) AFSCME (1.4 million members) Al Gore (2000 Democratic nominee) Bill Bradley (Gore's principal challenger in 2000 Democratic primaries) Tom Harkin (senior senator from IA) Howard Dean's Rise to Front Runner Status #6. High profile endorsements 2 largest labor unions in country SEIU (1.6 million members) AFSCME (1.4 million members) Al Gore (2000 Democratic nominee) Bill Bradley (Gore's principal challenger in 2000 Democratic primaries) Tom Harkin (senior senator from IA) By time of Iowa caucuses Dean leads in number of superdelegate commitments Free Media Attention, National Visibility, and Front Runner Status Early Primaries, Media Coverage, and Momentum: H. Dean (2004) Time/CNN National Poll: "Thinking ahead to the 2004 presidential election, if you were asked to vote for a Democratic presidential nominee for president today, which of the following Democrats would you vote for? . . ." (N=377 registered D and (N=377 I who lean D. Margin of Error 5.) 5.) 25 22 19 14 10 11 8 3 4 Dean 20 15 10 5 0 February 1920, 2003 May 21-22, 2003 July 16-17, 2003 September 3- November 18- December 30, 4, 2003 19, 2003 2003 January 1, 2004 January 1415, 2004 February 5-6, 2004 The Fall of a Front Runner The Fall of a Front Runner Is it possible to get ahead of the primary pack Too far? Too fast? Too soon? If so, what might happen? "Can Anyone Catch Dean?" (Karen Tumulty, Time Magazine, Nov. 24, 2003) Inevitability: Is the Democratic nomination contest over before it begins? Effectively places target on Dean's back "Can Anyone Catch Dean?" (Karen Tumulty, Time Magazine, Nov. 24, 2003) Inevitability: Is the Democratic nomination contest over before it begins? Effectively places target on Dean's back 1. Intense press scrutiny ("vetting") 3 issues: temper(ment); gaffs (electability); inexperience (national security) "Can Anyone Catch Dean?" (Karen Tumulty, Time Magazine, Nov. 24, 2003) Inevitability: Is the Democratic nomination contest over before it begins? Effectively places target on Dean's back 1. Intense press scrutiny ("vetting") 3 issues: temper(ment); gaffs (electability); experience (national security) 2."Political cannibalism" among Democratic rivals Candidates must go through Dean to get nomination Press Scrutiny: "As Dean forges ahead, his temperament gets closer look" USA Today, Nov. 12, 2003 Fred Greenstein, an authority on presidential leadership at Princeton . University, says: "Character, whether you mean it as moral fiber or psychological soundness, is really the bottom line in an office in which the incumbent is never more than a couple of dozen feet away from the nuclear button. You want to be very comfortable with the personal wiring of your chief executive,". Greenstein concludes: "It's easy to feel uneasy about Dean in the Oval Office." Then-governor Howard Dean jabbed his finger at state Senator Bill Doyle at the Vermont Legislature Press Scrutiny: Candor, Gaffs, and the Electability Issue The Dean Dilemma Howard Fineman, Newsweek, 1/12/04 "All the rage: His blunt talk's propelled him to the top, but some Democrats worry that Dean's shoot-from-the-hip style . . . might doom him in November. The doctor's ills-- and how his foes plan to exploit them." Political Cannibalism The Perils of FrontRunner Status Multi-Candidate Presidential Primary Race with No Clear Front Runner X Liberal X X X X X X Conservative Multi-Candidate Presidential Primary Race with No Clear Front Runner X Liberal X X X X X X Conservative Multi-Candidate Presidential Primary Race with No Clear Front Runner X Liberal X X Conservative Political Cannibalism The Perils of FrontRunner Status Dean on American Security after the Capture of Saddam Hussein Democrats Attack Dean's Remarks on Saddam's Capture Dean Haunted by Remarks made to Canadian T.V. on the Iowa Caucuses With less than two weeks before the 2004 Iowa caucuses, Howard Dean is confronted with remarks he made in 2000 to Canadian TV. Dean remarked that the Iowa caucuses are "dominated by special interests." "They don't represent the centrist tendencies of the American people. They represent the extremes" A Murder-Suicide Pact in Iowa? Howard Dean Dick Gephardt Results of 2004 Iowa Caucuses John Kerry 37.6% John Edwards 31.8% Howard Dean 18% Richard Gephardt 10.6% The "I Have a Scream" Speech ...
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This note was uploaded on 05/02/2010 for the course POLITICAL 140B taught by Professor Jamesscott during the Spring '10 term at UCLA.

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