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Review-1 - Some review problems: Bayes's rule Bayes's rule...

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Some review problems: Bayes’s rule
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Bayes’s rule b A kind of “reverse” conditional probability b Sometimes regarded as a “updating rule” for A after receiving “information” B
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Example: Medical screening Tree diagram for breast cancer screening of women in twenties Cancer Incidence Cancer Diagnosis A B 0.8 “Sensitivity” Women in 20s A c B c B B c 0.0004 0.9996 S 0.2 0.1 0.9 “Specificity” False negative False positive
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Example: Medical screening (continued) Given a cancer diagnosis, what is the probability of a cancer incidence? A B B c B 0.0004 0.9996 S 0.8 0.2 0.1 A c B c 0.9
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Example: Defective parts Tree diagram for parts from two different suppliers Supplier Defective A B 0.65 0.02 Part A c B c B B c 0.35 S 0.98 0.05 0.95
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B B c B 0.65 0.35 S 0.02 0.98 0.05 Example: Defective parts (continued) Given a defective part, what is the probability it came from Supplier A? A
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Review-1 - Some review problems: Bayes's rule Bayes's rule...

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