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Plug in a few numbers. Press the Calculate button. And just like that, a number
pops out, displaying your quarterback’s performance. 31.4? He had a bad day. 128.7? He
put up a show. Amazing isn’t it?
I would like to say that the NFL Quarterback Rating Formula precisely measures
quarterback performance. But it doesn’t. The problem is twofold. First, all variables
towards quarterback performance must be included to produce a precise rating. Second,
these predictors need to be perfectly quantified. Presently the formula includes attempts,
completions, passing yards, passing touchdowns, and interceptions as predictors that
comprise a quarterback’s rating. However, the formula lacks sacks, composure, and
fumbles, among many other predictors, that are crucial towards determining quarterback
performance. I like to think of this as gathering pieces to a puzzle. The more predictors
you have, the better your model will be.
But the quarterback formula is not limited to just gathering predictors. These
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 Spring '10
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