Plug in a few numbers. Press the Calculate button. And just like that, a number pops out, displaying your quarterback’s performance. 31.4? He had a bad day. 128.7? He put up a show. Amazing isn’t it? I would like to say that the NFL Quarterback Rating Formula precisely measures quarterback performance. But it doesn’t. The problem is two-fold. First, all predictors towards quarterback performance must be included to produce a precise rating. Second, these variables need to be perfectly quantified. Presently the formula includes attempts, completions, passing yards, passing touchdowns, and interceptions as metrics as variables that comprise a quarterback’s rating. However, no one can state with conviction that passing yards are 32% more relevant than interception rate, or vice versa. In addition, the formula also lacks sacks, composure, and fumbles, among many other variables, that are crucial in order to determine quarterback performance. These two challenges – including predictors and quantifying predictors – form the fundamentals of what statistical
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