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Plug in a few numbers. Press the Calculate button. And just like that, a number
pops out, displaying your quarterback’s performance. 31.4? He had a bad day. 128.7? He
put up a show. Amazing isn’t it?
I would like to say that the NFL Quarterback Rating Formula precisely measures
quarterback performance. But it doesn’t. The problem is twofold. First, all predictors
towards quarterback performance must be included to produce a precise rating. Second,
these variables need to be perfectly quantified. Presently the formula includes attempts,
completions, passing yards, passing touchdowns, and interceptions as metrics as variables
that comprise a quarterback’s rating. However, no one can state with conviction that
passing yards are 32% more relevant than interception rate, or vice versa. In addition, the
formula also lacks sacks, composure, and fumbles, among many other variables, that are
crucial in order to determine quarterback performance. These two challenges – including
predictors and quantifying predictors – form the fundamentals of what statistical
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 Spring '10
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