L7_Evidence-based forecasting

L7_Evidence-based forecasting - Evidence-based forecasting...

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1 Evidence-based forecasting Congcong Zheng
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2 What is to be forecasted? # of users # of units # of $/£/€/¥ etc. spent the size of the currently penetrated market Market share that you intend/can capture Sales revenue (for the pro forma) Costs Investments
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3 Methods Statistical Observation Surveys Analogy Judgment Market test
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4 Statistical methods: advantages  Useful in established firms for established products Likely to result in a more accurate forecast than other  methods under stable market conditions Statistical methods: limitations Assumes the future will look very much like the past Requires history Not useful for new products with no history
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5 Observation: advantages Based on what people actually do Observation: limitations Observation is typically not possible for new-to-the-world  products Requires prior examples to observe
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6 Surveys: advantages Many different groups of respondents can be 
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This note was uploaded on 05/08/2010 for the course MGT 450 taught by Professor Zheng during the Spring '10 term at San Diego State.

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L7_Evidence-based forecasting - Evidence-based forecasting...

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