CH%205_P1

CH%205_P1 - Chap 5 P1 A B Chapter 5 problem 1 Order...

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Chap 5 P1 Page 1 Chapter 5 problem 1 Order Quantity #AD IN? Sales Price 150 0 Initial Order Cost 10 0 Later Order Cost 120 0 Iterations= 10 Salvage Value 90 0 Simulations= 8 Demand #AD IN? # Input Variables= 2 Ful price Sales revenue #AD IN? # Output Variables= 2 Disposal Sales revenue #AD IN? Sampling Type= Latin Hypercube Initial Order Cost #AD IN? Runtime= 0 :0 :2 Reorder Cost #AD IN? Profit #AD IN? Sum ary Statistics Cel Name Minimum Mean Maximum C13 (Sim#1) Profit 7 9 9.13 191393.4 250541.7 C13 (Sim#2) Profit 759 9.13 192049.5 254541.7 C13 (Sim#3) Profit 739 9.13 192063.3 258541.7 (Sim#4) Profit 719 9.13 191485.7 262541.7 C13 (Sim#5) Profit 69 9 .13 190450.8 26 541.7 C13 (Sim#6) Profit 679 9.13 189052 270541.7 95% C.I. $1 8,0 0 to $250,0 0 I ran several simulations with ordering<=40 cars Profit went up as order quant. went up. Then I ran six simulations with simtable and found third simulation(ordering 4 cars) maximized expected profit. It ap ears ordering 35 cars maximizes expected profit. However, ordering 30 cars yields almost the same expected profit with les variance, so it might be a bet er order quantity Distribution for Profit/C13 (Sim#3) Values in 10^ -5 0.0 0 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.0 0 1.20 1.40 @RISK Student Version For Academic Use Only A B C D E F G H I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 3 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 4 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 5 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 6 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 7 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 8 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 9 10 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109
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