CH%208_P1

CH%208_P1 - Figure 8.1 Simulation Output for Capacity...

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Figure 8.1 Simulation Output for Capacity Planning Page 1 Year Sales(thousands of units) Figure 8.1 1985 500 %age increase Prediction Er or Est Interest rate 0.1 1986 544 500 1.09 541 1.01 Unit variable cost #NAME? 1987 593 544 1.09 588.61 1.01 Sales price 10 1988 672 593 1.13 641.62 1.05 Operating cost/unit plant capacity 1 1989 723 672 1.08 727.1 0.99 Fixed Cost slope per unit of cap 10 1990 757 723 1.05 782.28 0.97 Fixed Cost intercept 5000000 1991 848 757 1.12 819.07 1.04 Sales Price 10 1992 948 848 1.12 917.53 1.03 Variable cost slope per 100000 cap 0.1 1993 964 948 1.02 1025.73 0.94 Variable Cost intercept 6 Downside risk #NAME? 1994 1011 964 1.05 1043.05 0.97 Capacity #NAME? NPV #NAME? Avg %age increase 1.08 Mean Er or 1 Demand Sales Sales Rev Variable Cost Fixed Cost Operating Cost Profit 1995 Std dev Er or 0.04 1995 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Forecast 1996 1996 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? next year demand = last year demand*1.082*er or 1997 1997 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Plot ing demand shows that constant percentage growth where er or is normal mean 1 and std. dev.= 0.04 1998 1998 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? is more realistic than constant growth in units 1999 1999 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? so I believe this el gives a bet er indication 2000 2000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Downside risk minimized by capacity of 1.5 mil ion 2001 2001 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Expected Profit maximized by capacity of 1.7 mil ion 2002 2002 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2003 2003 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2004 2004 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Name Cel Sim Minimum Mean Maximum Simulation Results for Ch 8_p1.XLS Downside risk O10 1 $2,592,480.75 $2,670,869.50 $3,209,670.50 Downside risk O10 2 $888,323.00 $1,392,873.62 $2,398,156.00 Iterations= 100 Downside risk O10 3 $0.00 $423,637.94 $1,881,180.38 Simulations= 7 Downside risk O10 4 $0.00 $136,416.22 $1,662,192.38 # Input Variables= 11 Downside risk O10 5 $0.00 $95,817.25 $1,856,634.00 # Output Variables= 2 Downside risk O10 6 $0.00 $106,208.35 $2,128,102.00 Sampling Type= Latin Hypercube
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CH%208_P1 - Figure 8.1 Simulation Output for Capacity...

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