HW1Solutions - ESI 6321 APPLIED PROBABILITY METHODS FOR...

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Prof. Edwin Romeijn ESI 6321 Applied Probability Methods For Engineers Homework 1 - Solutions Spring 2008 1/3 ESI 6321 APPLIED PROBABILITY METHODS FOR ENGINEERS Homework 1 – Spring 2008 Solutions Exercise 2.2 (a) A total of 8 outcomes: HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, and TTT. (b) P(HHT) = 1/8. (c) P(First two tosses are heads) = 2/8. (d) P(Two heads in a row) = 3/8. Exercise 2.6 Time Slot Ad Cost Estimated Viewers Estimated Earnings Expected Net Profit Morning $120,000 1,000,000 $160,000 $40,000 Afternoon $200,000 1,300,000 $208,000 $8,000 Prime Time $400,000 3,200,000 $512,000 $112,000 Late Evening $150,000 800,000 $128,000 -$22,000 (a) According to the table above, the prime time slot would yield the highest expected net profit, $112,000. (b) The company should buy the morning and the prime time slots, with a total expected contribution to earnings of $152,000. Exercise 2.10 Let S1 denote the lamp comes from first shipment, S2 denote the lamp comes from second shipment, and D denote the lamp is defective. We want to compare P(S1 | D) to P(S2 | D). We have P(S1) = 100/150 = 2/3, P(S2) = 50/150 = 1/3, P(D | S1) = 0.04,
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This note was uploaded on 05/12/2010 for the course ESI 6321 taught by Professor Josephgeunes during the Spring '07 term at University of Florida.

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HW1Solutions - ESI 6321 APPLIED PROBABILITY METHODS FOR...

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