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SETZER_HW03_02 - page 1 of 2 2 Weekly sales of Hot Pizza...

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b4d2b4045f373ba42dba94363beefb6e0f532fa2.xls page 1 of 2 2. Weekly sales of Hot Pizza are as follows in the first spreadsheet. α = 0.1 Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, MSE, bias, and TS in each case. Four Week Moving Average % Error 1 108 2 116 3 118 4 124 116.50 5 96 113.50 116.50 20.50 20.50 420.25 20.50 21.35% 21.35% 20.50 1.00 6 119 114.25 113.50 -5.50 5.50 225.25 13.00 4.62% 12.99% 15.00 1.15 7 96 108.75 114.25 18.25 18.25 261.19 14.75 19.01% 15.00% 33.25 2.25 8 102 103.25 108.75 6.75 6.75 207.28 12.75 6.62% 12.90% 40.00 3.14 9 112 107.25 103.25 -8.75 8.75 181.14 11.95 7.81% 11.88% 31.25 2.62 10 102 103.00 107.25 5.25 5.25 155.54 10.83 5.15% 10.76% 36.50 3.37 11 92 102.00 103.00 11.00 11.00 150.61 10.86 11.96% 10.93% 47.50 4.38 12 91 $99.25 102.00 11.00 11.00 146.91 10.88 12.09% 11.08% 58.50 5.38 Estimate demand level L t for the next four weeks (highlighted in bold in spreadsheet) using a four-week moving average as well as simple exponential smoothing with Week t Demand D t Level L t Forecast F t Error E t Absolute Error A t Mean Squared Error MSE t MAD t MAPE t Bias t TS t
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b4d2b4045f373ba42dba94363beefb6e0f532fa2.xls page 2 of 2 Simple Exponential Smoothing % Error 0 106.33 1 108 106.50 106.33 -1.67 1.67 2.78 1.67 1.54% 1.54% -1.67 -1.00 2 116 107.45 106.50 -9.50 9.50 46.51 5.58 8.19% 4.87% -11.17 -2.00 3 118 108.51 107.45 -10.55 10.55 68.11 7.24 8.94% 6.22% -21.72 -3.00 4 124 110.05 108.51 -15.50 15.50 111.11 9.30 12.50% 7.79% -37.21 -4.00 5 96 108.65 110.05 14.05 14.05 128.39 10.25 14.64% 9.16% -23.16 -2.26 6 119 109.68 108.65 -10.35 10.35 124.85 10.27 8.70% 9.08% -33.51 -3.26 7 96 108.32 109.68 13.68 13.68 133.76 10.76 14.25% 9.82% -19.82 -1.84 8 102 107.68 108.32 6.32 6.32 122.03 10.20 6.19% 9.37% -13.51 -1.32 9 112 108.12 107.68 -4.32 4.32 110.54 9.55 3.85% 8.76% -17.82 -1.87 10 102 107.50 108.12 6.12
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