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SETZER_HW03_04

SETZER_HW03_04 - page 1 of 24 α = 0.1 β = 0.1 γ = 0.1 4...

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Unformatted text preview: 3282e175356ab4dbddd63e32c92e539b31d4bb4a.xls page 1 of 24 α = 0.1 β = 0.1 γ = 0.1 4. Consider monthly demand for the ABC Corporation as shown below. Forecast the monthly demand for Year 6 (in bold in each spreadsheet) using four-period moving average, simple exponential smoothing, Holt's model, and Winter's model. In each case evaluate the bias, TS, MAD, MAPE, and MSE and use the following coefficient definitions: 3282e175356ab4dbddd63e32c92e539b31d4bb4a.xls page 2 of 24 e, 3282e175356ab4dbddd63e32c92e539b31d4bb4a.xls page 3 of 24 Four-Period Moving Average % Error 1 2,000 2 3,000 3 3,000 4 3,000 2,750.00 5 4,000 3,250.00 2,750.00-1,250.00 1,250.00 1,562,500.00 1,250.00 31.25% 31.25%-1,250.00-1.00 6 6,000 4,000.00 3,250.00-2,750.00 2,750.00 4,562,500.00 2,000.00 45.83% 38.54%-4,000.00-2.00 7 7,000 5,000.00 4,000.00-3,000.00 3,000.00 6,041,666.67 2,333.33 42.86% 39.98%-7,000.00-3.00 8 6,000 5,750.00 5,000.00-1,000.00 1,000.00 4,781,250.00 2,000.00 16.67% 34.15%-8,000.00-4.00 9 10,000 7,250.00 5,750.00-4,250.00 4,250.00 7,437,500.00 2,450.00 42.50% 35.82%-12,250.00-5.00 10 12,000 8,750.00 7,250.00-4,750.00 4,750.00 9,958,333.33 2,833.33 39.58% 36.45%-17,000.00-6.00 11 14,000 10,500.00 8,750.00-5,250.00 5,250.00 12,473,214.29 3,178.57 37.50% 36.60%-22,250.00-7.00 12 8,000 11,000.00 10,500.00 2,500.00 2,500.00 11,695,312.50 3,093.75 31.25% 35.93%-19,750.00-6.38 13 3,000 9,250.00 11,000.00 8,000.00 8,000.00 17,506,944.44 3,638.89 266.67% 61.57%-11,750.00-3.23 14 1,000 6,500.00 9,250.00 8,250.00 8,250.00 22,562,500.00 4,100.00 825.00% 137.91%-3,500.00-0.85 15 3,000 3,750.00 6,500.00 3,500.00 3,500.00 21,625,000.00 4,045.45 116.67% 135.98% 0.00 0.00 16 5,000 3,000.00 3,750.00-1,250.00 1,250.00 19,953,125.00 3,812.50 25.00% 126.73%-1,250.00-0.33 17 5,000 3,500.00 3,000.00-2,000.00 2,000.00 18,725,961.54 3,673.08 40.00% 120.06%-3,250.00-0.88 18 8,000 5,250.00 3,500.00-4,500.00 4,500.00 18,834,821.43 3,732.14 56.25% 115.50%-7,750.00-2.08 19 3,000 5,250.00 5,250.00 2,250.00 2,250.00 17,916,666.67 3,633.33 75.00% 112.80%-5,500.00-1.51 20 8,000 6,000.00 5,250.00-2,750.00 2,750.00 17,269,531.25 3,578.13 34.38% 107.90%-8,250.00-2.31 21 12,000 7,750.00 6,000.00-6,000.00 6,000.00 18,371,323.53 3,720.59 50.00% 104.49%-14,250.00-3.83 22 12,000 8,750.00 7,750.00-4,250.00 4,250.00 18,354,166.67 3,750.00 35.42% 100.66%-18,500.00-4.93 23 16,000 12,000.00 8,750.00-7,250.00 7,250.00 20,154,605.26 3,934.21 45.31% 97.74%-25,750.00-6.55 24 10,000 12,500.00 12,000.00 2,000.00 2,000.00 19,346,875.00 3,837.50 20.00% 93.86%-23,750.00-6.19 25 2,000 10,000.00 12,500.00 10,500.00 10,500.00 23,675,595.24 4,154.76 525.00% 114.39%-13,250.00-3.19 26 5,000 8,250.00 10,000.00 5,000.00 5,000.00 23,735,795.45 4,193.18 100.00% 113.73%-8,250.00-1.97 27 5,000 5,500.00 8,250.00 3,250.00 3,250.00 23,163,043.48 4,152.17 65.00% 111.61%-5,000.00-1.20 28 3,000 3,750.00 5,500.00 2,500.00 2,500.00 22,458,333.33 4,083.33 83.33% 110.44%-2,500.00-0.61 29 4,000 4,250.00 3,750.00-250.00 250.00 21,562,500.0021,562,500....
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SETZER_HW03_04 - page 1 of 24 α = 0.1 β = 0.1 γ = 0.1 4...

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