Problem 16.7

Problem 16.7 - Forecasting - Moving Average # periods to...

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Unformatted text preview: Forecasting - Moving Average # periods to average Data Period 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 3 <--- Use '1' for the NAVE FORECAST Demand 5.38 3.43 3.00 4.25 5.49 5.01 5.06 4.78 4.64 5.82 3.40 1.61 1.01 2.17 3.89 Next period forecast Bias (Mean Error) MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) MSE (Mean Squared Error) Standard Error 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 93 95 97 03 91 19 20 20 19 19 19 19 20 05 99 01 Demand Forecast 2.36 (0.12) 1.22 2.47 1.72 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### Forecasting - Exponential Smoothing alpha Data Period 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 0.5 <--- Use '1.00' for the NAVE FORECAST d. The exponentially smoothed forecast for 2006 is 2.99. Demand 5.38 3.43 3.00 4.25 5.49 5.01 5.06 4.78 4.64 5.82 3.40 1.61 1.01 2.17 3.89 Next period forecast Bias (Mean Error) MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) MSE (Mean Squared Error) Standard Error 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 91 93 99 01 95 97 03 19 19 19 20 19 19 20 20 05 Demand Forecast 2.99 (0.34) 1.14 1.99 1.53 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ...
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