inference model seitlk1 - Advanced Quantitative Research...

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Advanced Quantitative Research Methodology Lecture Notes: Ecological Inference 1 Gary King http://GKing.Harvard.Edu January 29, 2008 1 c ± Copyright 2008 Gary King, All Rights Reserved. Gary King http://GKing.Harvard.Edu () January 29, 2008 1 / 1
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Reading Reading: Gary King. A Solution to the Eco- logical Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data . Princeton University Press, 1997 Gary King () Ecological Inference 2 / 1
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Preliminaries Gary King () Ecological Inference 3 / 1
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Preliminaries Definition: Ecological Inference is the process of using aggregate (i.e., “ecological”) data to infer discrete individual-level relationships of interest when individual-level data are not available. Gary King () Ecological Inference 3 / 1
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Preliminaries Definition: Ecological Inference is the process of using aggregate (i.e., “ecological”) data to infer discrete individual-level relationships of interest when individual-level data are not available. History of the Problem: Gary King () Ecological Inference 3 / 1
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Preliminaries Definition: Ecological Inference is the process of using aggregate (i.e., “ecological”) data to infer discrete individual-level relationships of interest when individual-level data are not available. History of the Problem: 1. Ogburn and Goltra (1919) in the very first multivariate statistical analysis of politics in a political science journal made ecological inferences and recognized the problem. The big issue in 1919: are the newly enfranchised women going to take over the political system? They regressed votes in referenda in Oregon precincts on the percent of women in each precinct. But they worried: Gary King () Ecological Inference 3 / 1
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Preliminaries Definition: Ecological Inference is the process of using aggregate (i.e., “ecological”) data to infer discrete individual-level relationships of interest when individual-level data are not available. History of the Problem: 1. Ogburn and Goltra (1919) in the very first multivariate statistical analysis of politics in a political science journal made ecological inferences and recognized the problem. The big issue in 1919: are the newly enfranchised women going to take over the political system? They regressed votes in referenda in Oregon precincts on the percent of women in each precinct. But they worried: It is also theoretically possible to gerrymander the precincts in such a way that there may be a negative correlative even though men and women each distribute their votes 50 to 50 on a given measure. . . (Ogburn and Goltra, 1919). Gary King () Ecological Inference 3 / 1
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Preliminaries Gary King () Ecological Inference 4 / 1
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Preliminaries 2. Robinson’s (1950) clarified the problem, causing: Gary King () Ecological Inference 4 / 1
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Preliminaries 2. Robinson’s (1950) clarified the problem, causing: (a) several literatures to wither, including studies of local and regional politics through aggregate electoral statistics in favor of survey research based on national samples.
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inference model seitlk1 - Advanced Quantitative Research...

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