modeldependence - Advanced Quantitative Research...

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Unformatted text preview: Advanced Quantitative Research Methodology, Lecture Notes: Model Dependence in Counterfactual Inference 1 Gary King http://GKing.harvard.edu January 18, 2010 1 c Copyright 2010 Gary King, All Rights Reserved. Gary King http://GKing.harvard.edu () Advanced Quantitative Research Methodology, Lecture Notes: Model Dependence in Count January 18, 2010 1 / 23 References King, Gary and Langche Zeng. “ The Dangers of Extreme Counterfactuals ,” Political Analysis , 14, 2, (2007): 131-159. Gary King http://GKing.harvard.edu () Advanced Quantitative Research Methodology, Lecture Notes: Model Dependence in Count January 18, 2010 2 / 23 References King, Gary and Langche Zeng. “ The Dangers of Extreme Counterfactuals ,” Political Analysis , 14, 2, (2007): 131-159. King, Gary and Langche Zeng. “ When Can History be Our Guide? The Pitfalls of Counterfactual Inference ,” International Studies Quarterly , 2006, 51 (March, 2007): 183–210. Gary King http://GKing.harvard.edu () Advanced Quantitative Research Methodology, Lecture Notes: Model Dependence in Count January 18, 2010 2 / 23 References King, Gary and Langche Zeng. “ The Dangers of Extreme Counterfactuals ,” Political Analysis , 14, 2, (2007): 131-159. King, Gary and Langche Zeng. “ When Can History be Our Guide? The Pitfalls of Counterfactual Inference ,” International Studies Quarterly , 2006, 51 (March, 2007): 183–210. Related Software: WhatIf , MatchIt , Zelig , CEM Gary King http://GKing.harvard.edu () Advanced Quantitative Research Methodology, Lecture Notes: Model Dependence in Count January 18, 2010 2 / 23 References King, Gary and Langche Zeng. “ The Dangers of Extreme Counterfactuals ,” Political Analysis , 14, 2, (2007): 131-159. King, Gary and Langche Zeng. “ When Can History be Our Guide? The Pitfalls of Counterfactual Inference ,” International Studies Quarterly , 2006, 51 (March, 2007): 183–210. Related Software: WhatIf , MatchIt , Zelig , CEM http://GKing.Harvard.edu/projects/cause.shtml Gary King http://GKing.harvard.edu () Advanced Quantitative Research Methodology, Lecture Notes: Model Dependence in Count January 18, 2010 2 / 23 Counterfactuals Gary King http://GKing.harvard.edu () Advanced Quantitative Research Methodology, Lecture Notes: Model Dependence in Count January 18, 2010 3 / 23 Counterfactuals Three types: Gary King http://GKing.harvard.edu () Advanced Quantitative Research Methodology, Lecture Notes: Model Dependence in Count January 18, 2010 3 / 23 Counterfactuals Three types: 1 Forecasts Will the U.S. be in Iraq in 2008? Gary King http://GKing.harvard.edu () Advanced Quantitative Research Methodology, Lecture Notes: Model Dependence in Count January 18, 2010 3 / 23 Counterfactuals Three types: 1 Forecasts Will the U.S. be in Iraq in 2008?...
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modeldependence - Advanced Quantitative Research...

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