political outlook 2009 - India 3 Outlook for 2008-09...

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India 3 Monthly Report May 2008 www.eiu.com ' The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2008 Outlook for 2008-09 Political outlook Political parties are busy gearing up for elections in some major states this year&Karnataka (in May), Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi. The main event, however, is the general election that must be held by May 2009. Recent state election results have made the Indian National Congress party (which heads the government at national level) less enthusiastic about an early general election. Furthermore, as constituency boundaries are being redrawn, the likelihood of a general election in 2008 can be discounted. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) minority coalition government is therefore now likely to complete its full term. The next general election is almost certain to return another coalition government, since neither Congress nor the main opposition party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is likely to be strong enough to win a majority on its own. While both parties will campaign strenuously against each other, they must also ensure that they can secure sufficient support among the smaller parties to form a coalition government. There are three groupings that could win power at the next election: a Congress-led or BJP-led coalition, or an alliance of left-wing and regional parties. Each combination, however, would be beset by contradictions, ranging from personality clashes to divergent approaches to economic policy. In recent years, building and managing uneasy coalitions has become the norm in India’s complicated political scene, which is deeply divided by caste and religion. Parties allied within coalitions at the centre or in some states remain
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This note was uploaded on 05/12/2010 for the course COMMERCE finc at University of Sydney.

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political outlook 2009 - India 3 Outlook for 2008-09...

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