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Unformatted text preview: Introduction Week Ten. Goal for this week: 1. Solve problems due today. 2. Review the nine weeeks. 3. Question and Answer. Stat 601, B. D. McCullough, Fall 2009 Introduction HS chapter 8, #14 HS chapter 9, #6 HS chapter 9, #7 Stat 601, B. D. McCullough, Fall 2009 HS chapter 8, #14 What is the null hypothesis? Jury Decides defendant is innocent guilty innocent ok Type ? Error guilty Type ? Error ok Stat 601, B. D. McCullough, Fall 2009 HS chapter 8, #14 Jury Decides defendant is innocent guilty innocent ok Type I Error guilty Type II Error ok In English, what are the Type I Error and Type II Error? Stat 601, B. D. McCullough, Fall 2009 HS chapter 8, #14 the null is: he is innocent Type I error: find an innocent man guilty Type II error: let an guilty man go free how to drive the probability of a Type I error to zero: let everyone go! Stat 601, B. D. McCullough, Fall 2009 HS chapter 9, #6 First take a quick look at pps. 406407. This is useful if you have to look at a process for which you have some information, and you wish to do back of the envelope calculations to see how changing a subprocess will affect the overall process. Stat 601, B. D. McCullough, Fall 2009 HS chapter 9, #6 see formulae p 376, 407 (here the c is zero and the c i are all unity for i 1) = 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 = 1 . 2 + 2 . 4 + 3 . 5 + 1 . 4 + 2 . 1 + 5 . 2 = 15 . 8 2 = 2 1 + 2 2 + 2 3 + 2 4 + 2 5 + 2 6 = 0 . 4 2 + 0 . 6 2 + 1 . 1 2 + 0 . 2 2 + 0 . 4 2 + 0 . 7 2 = 2 . 42 2 . 42 = 1 . 56 Without additional information, what can you say about the shape of the distribution for the overall process? Stat 601, B. D. McCullough, Fall 2009 HS chapter 9, #6 We can speculate that the distribution will be approximately normal, or at least more normal than any of the individual distributions, due to the central limit theorem. What assumptions would you have to make? A key assumption we would have to make is that the individual cycle times are independent of each other, i.e., not correlated....
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 Fall '09
 ADAMYORE
 Finance

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