Lecture6 - American Economic History ECN111B Problems with...

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http://ucdavis.econclasses.org/ECN111B [email protected] American Economic History – ECN111B Problems with Emancipation Theories Lecture 6
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Cotton Overproduction n Cotton overproduced due to debt peonage. n Pounds of cotton to bushels of grain n Year Ratio % Change n 1850 5.50 0 n 1860 10.64 48.3 n 1870 12.12 12.2 n 1880 13.90 12.8 n 1890 17.70 18.6 n Cotton increased relative to other crops. n Grain was converted into “corn equivalents.” n Bushels of grain converted to calories and then summed. n Cash crops increased more than food crops.
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Problems with Table n Bias due to selection of “Cotton South” in 1880 n 1860 1880 n high low didn’t choose n high high chose n low high chose n low low didn’t choose n Largest shift occurred between 1850 and 1860. n Debt peonage could not have been the cause. n Sharecropping could not have been the cause. n Table does not distinguish between a decrease in corn vs. an increase in cotton. n Corn consumed directly and indirectly. n Corn meal n Converted to “hogs” (10 to 1) n Decrease in hogs means a decrease in corn
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Test of Cotton Overproduction n If cotton was overproduced, the crop mix should be dominated by cotton. n If (Bu/Bale) 1860 > (Bu/Bale) 1870 then Increase n If (Bu/Bale) 1860 < (Bu/Bale) 1870 then Decrease n Sign test indicates that there was a shift out of cotton. 0 5 10 15 Increase 9 0 9 10 14 15 15 Decrease 6 0 6 7 3 2 2 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910
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Coercion n Slavery is by definition, coercive. n
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Lecture6 - American Economic History ECN111B Problems with...

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