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are106-homework-7-key-a

# are106-homework-7-key-a - 3 36.0 t'Y'U.~R:R:t 349.9 12.15...

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336.0 349.9 12.15 324.8 - 375.U t;'Y'U:.~R::R-:t: -evaluation statistics Hean &aucered Error ;w-nr :~tial1 Squared Error '·I~ Z;'uunlute Error Mean. Percentage Error :~,tlr. iilim:::>lute Percentage Error "ian >lr3!D0rtion, UM Rea~esBicon proportion, UR Disturban.ce proportion, UD -17.05 313.98 17.719 17.05 -5.0916 5.0916 4.933 0.92591 0.06982 0.0042748 ,h,j- f\.'f~itst- ;·'·.:",,:I·~ .. JtIH·.J ,'. -" , , \ \ , -'~V~J\~\/ I f The Central Limit Theorem says that even for a properly specified model, I out of20 draws will fall outside of the 95% confidence interval-that is a 5% miss rate. However, the plot above shows that lout of 5 values falls outside the 95% confidence interval, with a miss rate of 20%. Therefore, this is not a good/reasonable model because the miss rate is too high. Furthermore, this is not good forecasting because the forecasts are all higher than the true values, so this model does not have good predicting power. Problem 2 4.42089 - 10<0.261812) = 0.4267 [2.87812 + (100)0.084153 - (20)(-0.327667)]1/2 This has the student's t distribution with 23 d.f. ('n-k (312) = t'29-6 (0.05/2) = 2.069 Since Ie < t', we fail to reject the null at the 5% level of significance and say that the effect of eating meat is not statistically different from one-tenth the effect of eating edible fats on coronary heart disease. v/ Problem 3 ehd, = ~I + ~2edfat, + ~Jmeat, + ~4eig, + ~5beer, + ~6winet + u, chd, = ~I + ~2edfat. + ~Jmeat. + ~4eig, + (~5 - ~6)beer, + ~6wine, + ~6beer, + u, ehd, = ~l + ~2edfat. + ~Jmeat. + ~4cig, + obeer, + ~6wine, + ~6beer, + u, ehd, = ~I + ~2edfat. + ~Jmeat, + ~4cigt + obeer, + ~6(wine, + beer,) + u, ehd, = ~I + ~2edfat, + ~Jmeatt + ~4cig, + obeer, + ~6ZI, + u, where ZI, = wine, + beer, Hodel 2: OLS, using observations 1947-1975 (T 29) Dependent variable: chd
coefficient std. error t-ratio p-value const 40.3780 93.2770 0.4329 0.6691 edfat 4.42089 1. 69650 2.606 0.0158 ** meat 0.261812 0.290091 0.9025 0.3761 cig 11. 2963 5.68835 1.966 0.0591 .. beer -0.344291 17.6158 -0.01954 0.9846 Zl -1. 46901 16.6935 -0.08800 0.9306 Mean dependent var Sum squared resid R-squared 1'(5, 23) Log-likelihood Schwarz criterion rho 358.3034 2151.524 0.565800 5.994204 -103.5954 227.3947 0.268346 S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Adjusted R-squared P-value(p') Akaike criterion Bannan-Quinn Durbin-Watson 13.30299 9.671843 0.471409 0.001087 219.1909 221. 7602 1. 308232 Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 8 (beer) /'..

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