Global Corporate Strategy Project Paper - Annie S. Nachembe.pdf - EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICAN MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE CS601 \u2013 GLOBAL CORPORATE STRATEGY

Global Corporate Strategy Project Paper - Annie S. Nachembe.pdf

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EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICAN MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE CS601 GLOBAL CORPORATE STRATEGY TERM PROJECT PAPER Name: Annie S. Nachembe Student Number: 30ELS13713 Program and Intake: MBA Intake 30 Lecturer: Prof. D. Banda PROJECT ASSIGNMENT: Conduct a scenario analysis for your organisation for the next 10 years (2015 2025). Use the first ten stages of the scenario construction methodology. Pay particular attention to the assumptions behind each scenario and validate them as you choose one scenario as the most probable one to materialize.
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Abstract The world is continuously responding to global changes which range from economic, political, environmental, social, legal, and technological. The recent economic crisis, the increasing societal concern of environmental issues and technological advances are all change agents and they do cast a shadow of doubt on the future. Companies are now looking at reviewing its strategic plans and try to anticipate what tomorrow will bring. Scenario analysis provides a strategic planning method aimed to help decision-makers make flexible long-term plans. It consists in the development and assessment of a set of structurally different but plausible futures, called scenarios, that includes the major uncertainties in the business environment. Through the assessment of multiple scenarios, decision-makers are forced to expand their thinking and overcome the false certainty of a single forecast while increasing their readiness for the range of possibilities the future may hold. It is worth mentioning that scenarios are not, and should not be interpreted as, predictions that may or may not be right. They are a means of improving our understanding of the long-term global consequences of existing or potential trends and their interaction.
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1 1.0 INTRODUCTION Scenario analysis has been used by the private sector for the last 25 years to manage risk and develop robust strategic plans in the face of an uncertain future. Its success in helping firms manage large capital investments and change corporate strategy has made it a standard tool of medium- to long-term strategic planning. Scenarios have helped public sector agencies plan for population growth and regional development, state transportation investments, and the distribution of landfills. In the developing world, scenarios have been used to highlight the opportunities, risks, and trade-offs in national policy debates. Duinker and Greig (2007) argue that the purpose of conducting scenario analysis is not to make predictions, but rather to allow the opportunity to challenge assumptions and to broaden perspectives. A successful use of scenario analysis is the Enron Federal Credit Union, now called Star Trust. Since 1986, the credit union became fully supported by the Enron Corporation, one of the most profitable companies in the 1990’s that suddenly collapsed in 2001. In 1999, despite the reluctance of the union managers, an “unthinkable” scenario was developed where the union no longer relied on Enron, its single corporate sponsor. Later, when Enron collapsed, the credit
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  • Spring '20
  • scenario planning, AFGRI

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