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Unformatted text preview: Comparative Politics Problem Set II 1. Complete problem 6 in Chapter 6 of Clark, et. al. Answer: (a) Dependent variable is level of democracy measured using the Polity IV measure. Main independent variables are whether the state is oil reliant, which is measured by the export value of mineral based fuels (as % of GDP). (b) Main Hypothesis: Greater reliance on oil leads to lower levels of democracy. It is falsi ed if we nd that oil has no, or positive, e ect on democracy (c) Rentier story: Resource rich governments are less accountable. Re- pression story: Resource rich governments can expend resources on security forces. Modernization e ect: Oil based economic growth does not lead to kind of economic development that creates pres- sures for democracy (d) Ross predicts a negative coe cient more oil leads to less democracy. The coe cient turns out to be negative as predicted. The coe cient is statistically signi cant the standard error is small compared to the size of the coe cient (alternatively, you can look at the stars three stars, in this instances, indicates that the probability of observ- ing a negative e ect of this magnitude should happen in less than 1 cases out of one hundred if there really is no e ect.) (e) No the e ect is both in place in the Middle East and elsewhere. (f) Yes, Ross nds that non-fuel minerals have a similar e ect on democ- racy. 2. Complete problem 1 (b and c) and 3 in Chapter 8 of Clark, et. al. Answer (problem 1): b) The logic of free riding suggests that it might be better to need 60% than 30% because more people will feel obligated to show up....
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