307_summary_090808

307_summary_090808 - Math 307 Summary of where we are...

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Math 307 Summary of where we are: Because of the disruption of class from Hurricane Gustav, and the possibility of further disruption due to other storms, I am writing up a summary of what we have covered and what I would like us to have covered by now. Recall that a theoretical supplement has also been posted which lays out the formal axioms of probability theory and derivations of some basic rules, theorems, propositions etc from those axioms. You should know the results derived there, and have a good idea of how they are proved. This posting is an effort to fill in intuitive material and give some examples. In addition the lecture outline for Sep 8 will be posted. So go over all this. Intuitive interpretations of probability . Probability theory is an axiomatic theory about probability, but nowhere in the theory is there a formal definition of what probability means. This is similar to the axiomatic theory of plane geometry, where we all think we know what points and lines are, but formal definitions of points and lines is never given. But of course we need to have some intuitive idea of what they are in order to make any progress is geometry—to know what we are tryig to get at. So here we give two intuitive interpretations of probability, which are not part of the formal theory, but at least one of which is essential to understand if you are to get anywhere in the subject. Of these two
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