MS&E 252
HO31
Final Examination: Part I
Decision Analysis I
December 3rd, 2002
Final Examination 20012002: Part I
Please read the following instructions carefully!
1.
This exam is closed book and closed notes.
You may use one doublesided 8½’’x11’’ sheet
of paper with anything you wish. Three sheets of scratch paper are provided at the back of
this exam.
You may also use a calculator and a foreign language dictionary if you wish.
Please sit in alternate seats.
2.
The answer sheet is stapled to the back of the exam.
Please tear it off, print your name and
SUID number, and sign the Honor Code and exam agreement.
Your exam will not be graded
unless you have printed your name and signed this statement.
3. Part I contains 60 points.
All exam questions in this part carry the same weight.
Do not
spend too much time on any one question.
Read each question carefully.
You may not need
all the information given in a particular problem.
4.
At the end of this portion of exam, please make sure your probability assignments are written
clearly in the appropriate boxes on the answer sheet.
This portion of the exam will be graded
solely on the basis of your probability assignments.
Turn in the single answer sheet
.
5.
This part of the exam will end at 8:00pm.
You will have five minutes to turn in your answer
sheet to your TA and pick up Part II.
In fairness, we will not accept Part I after 8:05 pm.
6. You will receive your answer sheet back when you turn in Part II.
Please submit Part I
answers on the web by 11:59am (just before NOON) on Friday, December 14, 2001
.
7.
In the spirit of the Honor Code, the Teaching Team will remain outside the classroom during
the exam.
If you have questions please ask us.
Clarifications will be announced to the class.
8.
Unless stated otherwise, the characters in the exam prefer more money to less and follow the
Five Rules of Actional Thought.
Do not make any additional assumptions.
9. If your probabilities do not add up to one the teaching team will normalize them.
If you
leave boxes blank and your probabilities add up to less than one we will distribute the
remaining probability equally among the empty answer boxes.
If your probabilities add up to
more than one and you have left boxes blank we will normalize the nonblank boxes and
place zeros in the empty boxes. For example,
i
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.3
j
0.7
k
0.9
0.2
Would become:
i
0.214
0.357
0.214
0.214
j
0.1
0.1
0.7
0.1
k
0.82
0.18
0
0
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MS&E 252
HO31
Final Examination: Part I
Decision Analysis I
December 3rd, 2002
10.
You be will scored according to the following scoring function:
Score =
)
4
ln
p
ln
1
(
*
10
60
+
, where p is the probability you assign to the correct answer.
11.
The graph and table below show the number of points you will receive per question
depending on the probability you assign to the correct answer.
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 Fall '08
 HOWARD
 Decision Analysis, Alice in Wonderland, Influence diagram

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