{[ promptMessage ]}

Bookmark it

{[ promptMessage ]}

Party Problem Complete

Party Problem Complete - Kim's Party Problem Kim's Decision...

Info iconThis preview shows pages 1–12. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Kim’s Party Problem
Background image of page 1

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
O Outdoors P Porch I Indoors Sunshine S R Rain S R S R Kim’s Decision Tree
Background image of page 2
Decision Tree with Probabilities  Outdoors Porch Indoors 0.4 0.6 Sun Rain 0.4 0.6 Sun Rain 0.4 0.6 Sun Rain
Background image of page 3

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
The Ordered Prospect List O - S P - S I - R I - S P - R O - R B: Best W: Worst
Background image of page 4
Question 3 Which of the following statements is true? a) If Kim’s belief about the probability of sunshine changes, the  order of her prospects might change. a) If Prof. Howard tells Kim that she is not allowed to have the  party indoors because he will be working in his office and does  not want to be disturbed, then P-R becomes the 2 nd  best  prospect. a) If Kim wishes to introduce another alternative, “cancel the  party”, then the order of the existing prospects relative to one  another might change. a) Ibrahim is an extremely smart TA. Not only that, but he is also  exceptionally humble.
Background image of page 5

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Creation of Equivalent Deals O - S P - S I - R I - S P - R O - R B W B W B W B W B W B W = = = = = = 1 0 0.95 0.05 0.67 0.33 0.57 0.43 0.32 0.68 0 1
Background image of page 6
Substitution of Equivalent Deals for Each Prospect  Outdoors Porch Indoors 0.4 0.6 Sun Rain 0.4 0.6 Sun Rain 0.4 0.6 Sun Rain Best Worst Best Worst Best Worst Best Worst Best Worst Best Worst 0 1 0 1 0.95 0.05 0.32 0.68 0.57 0.43 0.67 0.33
Background image of page 7

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Alternatives Represented as  Probabilities of Best Prospect Outdoors Porch Indoors 0.4 0.6 Best Worst 0.57 0.43 Best Worst 0.63 0.37 Best Worst
Background image of page 8
Question 4 Which of the following statements is true? a) According to the decision tree we just saw, Kim assigns a 63%  chance to her receiving the best party if she selects the indoors  alternative. a) Kim assigns a 40% chance to her receiving the best party if she  selects the outdoors alternative. a) Using decision analysis, it is not possible to determine what the  best course of action is unless you introduce a monetary value  measure to express your preferences. a) The answer d).
Background image of page 9

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Answers to the 4 Questions
Background image of page 10
Question 1 As you go through the order rule, you find out that for two  prospects A and B, you are having difficulty articulating  whether you prefer A to B or B to A. What should you do? a) If it is because you are just about indifferent between A and B,  then you should put the two prospects at the same level. a) If it is because there is some residual uncertainty in prospects A  and B which prevents you from knowing which one is better,  you should go back to the probability rule and add that  uncertainty to your tree. This will make it easier for you to 
Background image of page 11

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Image of page 12
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

{[ snackBarMessage ]}