Party Problem Complete

Party Problem Complete - Kims Party Problem O O u td o o rs...

Info iconThis preview shows pages 1–12. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

Unformatted text preview: Kims Party Problem O O u td o o rs P P o rc h I In d o o rs S u n s h in e S R R a in S R S R Kims Decision Tree Decision Tree with Probabilities Outdoors Porch Indoors 0.4 0.6 Sun Rain 0.4 0.6 Sun Rain 0.4 0.6 Sun Rain The Ordered Prospect List O - S P - S I - R I - S P - R O - R B: Best W: Worst Question 3 Which of the following statements is true? a) If Kims belief about the probability of sunshine changes, the order of her prospects might change. a) If Prof. Howard tells Kim that she is not allowed to have the party indoors because he will be working in his office and does not want to be disturbed, then P-R becomes the 2 nd best prospect. a) If Kim wishes to introduce another alternative, cancel the party, then the order of the existing prospects relative to one another might change. a) Ibrahim is an extremely smart TA. Not only that, but he is also exceptionally humble. Creation of Equivalent Deals O - S P - S I - R I - S P - R O - R B W B W B W B W B W B W = = = = = = 1 0.95 0.05 0.67 0.33 0.57 0.43 0.32 0.68 1 Substitution of Equivalent Deals for Each Prospect Outdoors Porch Indoors 0.4 0.6 Sun Rain 0.4 0.6 Sun Rain 0.4 0.6 Sun Rain Best Worst Best Worst Best Worst Best Worst Best Worst Best Worst 1 1 0.95 0.05 0.32 0.68 0.57 0.43 0.67 0.33 Alternatives Represented as Probabilities of Best Prospect Outdoors Porch Indoors 0.4 0.6 Best Worst 0.57 0.43 Best Worst 0.63 0.37 Best Worst Question 4 Which of the following statements is true? a) According to the decision tree we just saw, Kim assigns a 63% chance to her receiving the best party if she selects the indoors alternative. a) Kim assigns a 40% chance to her receiving the best party if she selects the outdoors alternative. a) Using decision analysis, it is not possible to determine what the best course of action is unless you introduce a monetary value measure to express your preferences. a) The answer d). Answers to the 4 Questions Question 1 As you go through the order rule, you find out that for two prospects A and B, you are having difficulty articulating whether you prefer A to B or B to A. What should you do? a) If it is because you are just about indifferent between A and B, then you should put the two prospects at the same level....
View Full Document

Page1 / 40

Party Problem Complete - Kims Party Problem O O u td o o rs...

This preview shows document pages 1 - 12. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Ask a homework question - tutors are online