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Party Problem Complete

# Party Problem Complete - Kim's Party Problem Kim's Decision...

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Kim’s Party Problem

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O Outdoors P Porch I Indoors Sunshine S R Rain S R S R Kim’s Decision Tree
Decision Tree with Probabilities  Outdoors Porch Indoors 0.4 0.6 Sun Rain 0.4 0.6 Sun Rain 0.4 0.6 Sun Rain

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The Ordered Prospect List O - S P - S I - R I - S P - R O - R B: Best W: Worst
Question 3 Which of the following statements is true? a) If Kim’s belief about the probability of sunshine changes, the  order of her prospects might change. a) If Prof. Howard tells Kim that she is not allowed to have the  party indoors because he will be working in his office and does  not want to be disturbed, then P-R becomes the 2 nd  best  prospect. a) If Kim wishes to introduce another alternative, “cancel the  party”, then the order of the existing prospects relative to one  another might change. a) Ibrahim is an extremely smart TA. Not only that, but he is also  exceptionally humble.

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Creation of Equivalent Deals O - S P - S I - R I - S P - R O - R B W B W B W B W B W B W = = = = = = 1 0 0.95 0.05 0.67 0.33 0.57 0.43 0.32 0.68 0 1
Substitution of Equivalent Deals for Each Prospect  Outdoors Porch Indoors 0.4 0.6 Sun Rain 0.4 0.6 Sun Rain 0.4 0.6 Sun Rain Best Worst Best Worst Best Worst Best Worst Best Worst Best Worst 0 1 0 1 0.95 0.05 0.32 0.68 0.57 0.43 0.67 0.33

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Alternatives Represented as  Probabilities of Best Prospect Outdoors Porch Indoors 0.4 0.6 Best Worst 0.57 0.43 Best Worst 0.63 0.37 Best Worst
Question 4 Which of the following statements is true? a) According to the decision tree we just saw, Kim assigns a 63%  chance to her receiving the best party if she selects the indoors  alternative. a) Kim assigns a 40% chance to her receiving the best party if she  selects the outdoors alternative. a) Using decision analysis, it is not possible to determine what the  best course of action is unless you introduce a monetary value  measure to express your preferences. a) The answer d).

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