Problem_Session_3

Problem_Session_3 - MS&E 252 Decision Analysis I...

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06/17/10 MS&E 252 Problem Session 3 1 MS&E 252 Decision Analysis I Problem Session 3
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06/17/10 MS&E 252 Problem Session 3 2 Announcements Midterm exam will be on Nov 6 th from 11am to 12:15pm, Location to be determined later All local SCPD must attend the Midterm
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06/17/10 MS&E 252 Problem Session 3 3 What concepts do we expect you to master? Distinctions Kind, degree Probability Background state of information (&) Inferential notation Probabilistic inference Tree flipping Relevance Relevance Diagrams The Rules of Arrow Flipping Associative Logic Errors
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06/17/10 MS&E 252 Problem Session 3 4 Important distinctions about distinctions? You can have different kinds of distinctions, i.e. different ways to split the same group We call the smaller groups the degrees of the distinction. A Distinction is a thought that splits a big group into two or more little groups.
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06/17/10 MS&E 252 Problem Session 3 5 We call a distinction clear if it passes the clarity test , i.e. if the clairvoyant can tell which degree has occurred. If you can tell which degree of the distinction has occurred, we call it an observable distinction. If the distinction helps you in thinking about a decision situation, we call it a useful distinction. Important distinctions about distinctions?
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06/17/10 MS&E 252 Problem Session 3 6 Important distinctions about distinctions? Mutually exclusive at most one can occur. Collectively exhaustive at least one must occur. Mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive exactly one must occur.
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06/17/10 MS&E 252 Problem Session 3 7 The degrees of a distinction must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive . Think about the temperature outside. .. Under 10°C, over 20°C Under 20°C, over 10°C Under 20°C, over 20°C Under 20°C, over 20°C, at 20°C Example Degrees of Distinctions
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06/17/10 MS&E 252 Problem Session 3 8 Important distinctions about distinctions? Kind: type of grouping (beer drinker, college graduate) Degree: separation within grouping (beer drinker vs. not beer drinker) Kinds Degrees Probability tree representation:
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06/17/10 MS&E 252 Problem Session 3 9 What concepts do we expect you to master? Distinctions Kind, degree Probability Background state of information (&) Inferential notation Probabilistic inference Tree flipping Relevance Relevance Diagrams The Rules of Arrow Flipping Associative Logic Errors
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06/17/10 MS&E 252 Problem Session 3 10 We encode our uncertainty using probability. Uncertainty comes from our lack of knowledge. Probability allows us to “speak precisely about our ignorance.” Instead of “The probability is …” say “I assign a probability … to …” Your probability changes as your knowledge changes.
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06/17/10 MS&E 252 Problem Session 3 11 Probability Notation your background state of information probability of event A occurring given your background state of information probability of event A occurring given you
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Problem_Session_3 - MS&E 252 Decision Analysis I...

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