HO1- Courseguide

HO1- Courseguide - MS&E 352 Handout #1 Decision...

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MS&E 352 Handout #1 Decision Analysis II January 6 th , 2009 _______________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ 1/3/2009 1 of 6 Course Guide Course Guide to MS&E 352 Decision Analysis II – Professional Decision Analysis Welcome back, we are glad to see you in “Professional Decision Analysis”. DA2 is the second course in the DA sequence of courses and its primary focus is on the practice of decision analysis. This course guide has been developed to give you an introduction to the course, the logistics involved and also to emphasize some important aspects. Please read this handout carefully. Overview Everyone makes decisions, but only a few people think about how they do it. Decision analysis is the normative field of decision-making. MS&E 352, Professional Decision Analysis, is the second course in the Decision Analysis sequence. Its primary focus is on the application of decision analysis in practice. It gives you the skills needed to consult in decision analysis at a professional level. The focus of MS&E 352 is on the extension of decision making from a system of thought about personal decisions to the considerations necessary for aiding other people and organizations in decision making; we call it decision engineering. You will further develop your ability to structure and implement an analysis that will lead to clarity of action in complex decision situations. In DA 2, we will discuss larger size problems that generally have a higher level of technical computation, than in DA1. To accommodate for this we will be using spreadsheets and/or decision analysis software in many of our applications. The course will have several group case studies to give you the opportunity to develop your own thoughts on the analysis of decision problems. During the course we will also guide you through the “Best Operational Practices” to develop spreadsheet models for consulting projects and methods to enhance the presentation of your analysis. Some of the topics covered: 1. Decision analysis applications in bidding strategies for different auctions. 2. Decision making when the decisions influence the uncertainties you are facing. 3. How to organize the decision conversation (the Dialogue Decision Process). 4. The role of the decision analysis cycle in assessing the quality of decisions. 5. Framing decisions: decision hierarchy, strategy tables for alternative creation, creativity, developing effective decision diagrams, overcoming biases in probability assessment and framing. 6. Decision traps and aspects of behavioral decision making.
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MS&E 352 Handout #1 Decision Analysis II January 6 th , 2009 _______________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ 1/3/2009 2 of 6 Course Guide 7. Organizational and political barriers to decision making. 8.
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This note was uploaded on 06/16/2010 for the course MS&E 352 taught by Professor Ronhoward during the Winter '09 term at Stanford.

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HO1- Courseguide - MS&E 352 Handout #1 Decision...

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