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HO26 Final_Exam_09

HO26 Final_Exam_09 - MS&E 352 Decision Analysis II MS&E 352...

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MS&E 352 Decision Analysis II 03/12/2009 ____________________________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________________________ 03/12/09 page 1 of 12 Final Exam MS&E 352 Final Examination (Winter 2009) Distributed: Thursday, March 12 th , 2009 at 1:00pm Due: Thursday, March 19 th , 2009 at 1:00 pm Please Note: Please keep this sheet as the first page of the work you turn in. No exams will be accepted after the due date and time. Late submission of the final exam will result in a grade of 0/300. 1. This exam is a take-home exam. You may use the reference material listed in the course guide as well as any work that you have done during the quarter. Please do not refer to any work done by students of previous years. This is meant to be an individual effort ; you should not discuss this exam with anyone except the teaching team. You may (and are encouraged to) use a calculator or a spreadsheet program where needed. 2. Please print your name, and sign the Honor Code. Your exam will not be graded unless you have printed your name and signed the Honor Code. Please keep this sheet as the first page of the work that you turn in. 3. Read over each question carefully. You may not need all the information given in a particular problem. 4. Unless stated otherwise, the characters in the exam prefer more money to less and follow the Five Rules of Actional Thought. Do not make any additional assumptions. 5. Please include a general table of contents for the work that you turn in. 6. Please write clearly and show your work . You will not receive credit for illegible work or if you do not show your work. Partial credit will be given where appropriate. For problems with numerical answers, please draw a box around the final answer . 7. If you have any questions, please post them on coursework. Important clarifications (if necessary) will be e-mailed to the entire class and posted on the announcements page on coursework. 8. The exam is worth a total of 300 points. The points are broken down by question. In recognition and in the spirit of the Honor Code, I certify that I will neither receive nor give unpermitted aid on this exam and that I will report, to the best of my ability, all Honor Code violations observed. Name (printed): _______________________________________________ Name (signed): _______________________________________________
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MS&E 352 Decision Analysis II 03/12/2009 ____________________________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________________________ 03/12/09 page 2 of 12 Final Exam Problem 1 – Auctions (50 points) PART I – Billionaire Art Lovers (20 points) You work for Bill G., an eccentric risk-neutral billionaire art lover, who is considering entering a sealed-bid, first-price auction for a classy painting. The value of the painting to Bill G. is independent of the bid amount. After much thoughtful analysis, you have constructed two graphs that provide insight into Bill G.’s bidding situation. Unfortunately, the numbers on the x-axis of one of the graphs have been erased. All you can be sure of is that you have done your analysis correctly. Here are the graphs: (Please note that the two graphs might have different horizontal scales) Certain Equivalent of Bill G.'s Bid Deal vs Bid Amount -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 Bill G.'s Bid Amount ($K) Certain Equivalent ($K) Probability Bill G. Acquires Painting vs Bid
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