Unformatted text preview: Making DAMN Good Decisions ! Burke Robinson
Consulting Professor Stanford University
Copyright 2009 by Burke Robinson, LLC 1 How to Frame and Structure Decisions
Decision Process Decision Quality Decision Tools Road Map Issues and Challenges Decision Hierarchies Strategy Tables Decision Diagrams
MS&E 352 Problem Session 29 JAN 09
Copyright 2009 by Burke Robinson, LLC 2 1 Ineffective decision processes waste valuable time in task forces developing issues. Decision Situation Issues Development Task Forces Decision Recommendation A single alternative analyzed for the most likely scenario that's all most groups can typically grind out. Developing and evaluating several alternatives across a range of uncertain scenarios "strains the brains" of most decision task forces.
Copyright 2009 by Burke Robinson, LLC 3 Avoid flawed approaches to decision making... Polarity management and managing dilemmas are not better than analytical tools and problem solving methods. Polarities and dilemmas are merely unclear or unresolved preference tradeoffs. EvidenceEvidence-based management is an important, yet quite obvious, starting point for decision quality. But, we need more than objective data about the past; we need key more subjective judgments about future events from respected experts, who may disagree. Incrementalism and "muddling through" rationalize sloppy decision making by through" organizations that are overwhelmed by large, complex problems. Systems models can capture essential factors and their relationships, as well as deliver clear insights. Descriptive and behavioral styles encourage "satisficing" instead of optimizing, and support personal or organizational behaviors that are irrational, emotional, and political. In contrast, normative approaches specify how decisions should be made. Intuitive and gut-feel decision processes are glorified as the only way to be flexible gutand adaptive in a changing world. This is true only when tuned up with quantitative evaluations and rigor...
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