2008S_153.5_Final_Exam_Review.s

2008S_153.5_Final_Exam_Review.s - MS&E 153: Intro....

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Unformatted text preview: MS&E 153: Intro. to Decision Making in Organizations Review for Final Exam Sam Holtzman Copyright © 2008 Samuel Holtzman. All rights reserved. Review for Final Exam ● Brief Review – Decision Maker: Up-side and Down-side – Decision Quality ● Class Exercise – – – – Decision Situation Decision Hierarchy Strategy Table Decision Diagram Copyright © 2008 Samuel Holtzman. All rights reserved. 1 of 7 Decision Maker: Up-side and Down-side ● What is a decision? ● What is a break? ● What does the decision maker declare? ● Who needs to be coached to see the upside? ● Who needs to help to appreciate the downside? Copyright © 2008 Samuel Holtzman. All rights reserved. 2 of 7 Decision Quality About the FUTURE Meaningful, Reliable Information Up-side & Down-side Clear, Genuine Preferences 3 or 4 Different Sound Creative, Doable Formulate Evaluate Interpret Reasoning Alternatives What’s in/out 100% Useful Frame Copyright © 2008 Samuel Holtzman. All rights reserved. Commitment By Those Who Control Resources to Action 3 of 7 6 Class Exercise Decision Situation ● ● ● ● ● You are considering buying a car. Others (e.g., parents, significant other, etc.) must agree. You could buy or lease a new car. You could buy a used car. You are concerned about – – – – – – Looks Gas mileage Cost of ownership Capacity Reliability Safety. Copyright © 2008 Samuel Holtzman. All rights reserved. 4 of 7 Class Exercise Decision Hierarchy Given Focus Actionable Decisions Deferred Copyright © 2008 Samuel Holtzman. All rights reserved. 5 of 7 Class Exercise Strategy Table Decision Decision Decision Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 ● Memorable alternative names Option 2.1 Alternative 1 Option 3.1 Option 1.1 ● Avoid ‘Hi, Med, Lo’ Entries Option 2.2 Option 3.1 Alternative 2 Option 2.3 Option 1.2 Alternative 3 Option 3.3 Option 2.4 Copyright © 2008 Samuel Holtzman. All rights reserved. ● Actionable, mutually exclusive options 6 of 7 Class Exercise Decision Diagram Different Demand outcomes would lead to different Market Test result probabilities. Demand Market Test Demand is not known when the Plant Size decision is made. Profits Plant Size The Market Test result is known when the Plant Size decision is made. Copyright © 2008 Samuel Holtzman. All rights reserved. Key Decision Uncertainty Result Relevance 7 of 7 3 MS&E 153: Intro. to Decision Making in Organizations Review for Final Exam Sam Holtzman Copyright © 2008 Samuel Holtzman. All rights reserved. ...
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