Solutions to Prob 2_4_5 HW 3

# Solutions to Prob 2_4_5 HW 3 - form In actual scenarios...

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Problem 2 0.07= 1- (.48+.27+.18) 0.55= .48+.07 .45 = .18 + .27 For part ‘c’ you need to flip the tree and find the answer a b

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Problem 4 Actual  Color of  the cab Color  perceived  by the  witness a. Actual  Color of  the cab Color  perceived  by the  witness b. Assessed form Inferential form c. In such questions, you need to identify the distinction of interest i.e. “Actual Color of the cab” and the observed distinction i.e. “ Color perceived by the witness” and then put the arrows. A similar example will be “Amount of oil in the ground” and “ result of seismic test” First diagram is called the ‘assessed form’ because it is the form in which probabilities are usually assessed. But we need to put it in an ‘inferential form’ if we are to obtain information from the experimental process in its most useful
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Unformatted text preview: form. In actual scenarios, you’ll always have the outcome of the experiment which may/ may not be helpful in making decisions. This idea is depicted by the inferential form. Problem 5 Occurrence of Earthquake Occurrence of robbery at house Report on radio about earthquake Alarm triggers Security centre calls back Here you need to define uncertainties precisely. Just writing ‘Alarm’, ‘call’, ‘radio’ is inappropriate. Please try to be precise. Also, if you have an uncertainty named ‘alarm triggers’, it includes the possibility of ‘not triggering of alarm’. You don’t have to put a separate distinction for that....
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## This note was uploaded on 06/16/2010 for the course MS&E 153 taught by Professor Ronhoward during the Summer '08 term at Stanford.

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Solutions to Prob 2_4_5 HW 3 - form In actual scenarios...

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