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153.Final_Exam_calc.SUM07.rev

153.Final_Exam_calc.SUM07.rev - Blue"blue" 0.83...

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Audrey's Fruit Stand Decision Analysis w/ Value of Information and Control Initial Supply Initial Cost New Cost Price Demand Demand Price 60 2 30 3 H 130 5 55 0.5 Demand Probability 5 130 H 0.5 L -20 H 4 0.5 0.5 L 0.5 H 120 3 70 0.5 Price Demand Sales 70 4 80 H 50 L 20 5 5 0.5 L 20 30 H 65 H 60 L 4 4 45 0.5 0.5 L 35 3 H 80 L 30 3 3 0.5 L 50 Supply
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Basket Delivery Probabilities Audrey's Insurance Decision for Fred Andrea Sofia 0.7 Yes 0.44 Minor -500 Minor 0.67 0.7 0.7 Yes 0.67 -2,950 -300 No 0.22 Accident Moderate -3,000 Accident Moderate 0.33 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -590 -60 Yes 0.22 Pay Serious -20,000 File Serious 0.67 Damages 0.1 Claim 0.1 No 0.33 0 0 No 0.11 None 0 None 0.33 0.8 0.8 both = Max value of insurance = difference between -590 and = 0.50 = 530 Blue and Green Taxicabs Blue and Green Taxicabs flipped Cab color "Witness" "Witness" Cab color "blue" 0.63 Blue 0.63 0.750 0.938
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Unformatted text preview: Blue "blue" 0.83 0.667 "green" 0.208 Green 0.042 0.250 0.063 "blue" 0.042 Blue 0.208 0.250 0.625 Green "green" 0.17 0.333 "green" 0.13 Green 0.13 0.750 0.375 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 New Supply and Cost Tree Price Demand 130 H 60 35 0.5 5 120 L 10 0.5 60 H 30 30 0.5 35 4-20 L 30 0.5 20 H 0.5 3 30 L 0.5-300 Deductible-300-300-300-60 Supply Cost Price Demand 50 4 H-25-87.5 0.5 Demand Probability 5 H 0.5 L-150 0.5 L 0.5 H-40-80 0.5 Price Demand Sales-72.5 4 H 35 L-120 5 0.5 L 10 H 40 H-50 4-72.5 0.5 L 20 3 H 50 L-95 3 0.5 L 35 Demand Price 5-25-25 H 4-40 0.5 3-50-60 5-150-95 L 4-120 0.5 3-95...
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