deregulation price forecasting electricity

deregulation price forecasting electricity - 1 Forecasting...

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1 Abstract —This paper reports preliminary results of an on- going survey of electricity price forecasting techniques developed over the last fifteen years or so. The main focus of this survey is the method of forecasting electrical energy prices on a pool-style energy forward market (typically, one-day ahead). Because the British market began operating its initial pool and real data became available in 1990, this survey reviewed publications that appeared in 1990 and after. The paper source of this preliminary survey is exclusively limited to INSPEC/IEEE-Xplore. A limited list of printed books for general background information is also included. From the review of the papers, a summary of general procedure of price forecasting and of factors to be considered is discussed. Index Terms —deregulation, electricity prices, forecast, models, time series, neural networks. I. INTRODUCTION This paper reports preliminary results of an on-going survey of electricity price forecasting techniques developed over the last fifteen years or so. The main focus of this survey is the method of forecasting electrical energy prices in a pool- style energy forward market (typically, one-day ahead). Because the British market began operating its initial pool and real data became available in 1990, this survey covered publications that appeared in 1990 and after. Due mainly to the nature of this survey paper — papers are newly published day by day and this paper is also partly a tutorial — and for the IEEE member’s convenience, the paper source of this preliminary survey is exclusively limited T. Niimura is with Trans National Computing Systems Inc., Burnaby, BC, Canada. (e-mail: [email protected]) . to INSPEC/IEEE-Xplore. On a quick search of the Internet by a good search engine, it is relatively easy to find thousands of related articles, but many researchers find that such sources are not stable; e.g., the sources can be phased out for the renovation of the websites. Therefore, this survey relied on more established and accessible on-line resources. Exceptions are the limited list of printed books for general background information. Price forecasting is a complex issue involving many factors and activities surrounding the electricity markets (e.g., Market structure itself is not uniform). Related issues may include: market designs, tariffs and other policies, pricing/bidding schemes, market power and gaming, etc. The main focus here is, however, the methodologies of forecasting spot market prices. Load forecasting methods are, although technically similar, excluded from this survey. The structure of this paper is as follows: In Chapter 2, a brief classification of papers listed is outlined. In Chapter 3, from the overview of the papers, a summary of general procedure of price forecasting and of factors to be considered is discussed. Chapter 4 gives the summary of the findings and (tentative) conclusion. A list of over eighty papers surveyed is included in the References. II.
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This note was uploaded on 06/16/2010 for the course MS&E 369 taught by Professor Blakejohnson during the Spring '08 term at Stanford.

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deregulation price forecasting electricity - 1 Forecasting...

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