Example_problem_chater15

# Example_problem_chater15 - Problem#15-2 Dt Ft 3-Month...

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Problem #15-2 3-Month Absolute Weighted Absolute 3-Month MA MAD = 1.60 Moving Value Moving Value Month Demand Average Error Average Error Weighted MA MAD = 2.15 1 8 2 12 3 7 3-Month MA MAD = (E4+E5+E6+E7+E8)/5 4 9 9.00 0.0 8.77 0.23 = (0+5.7+0.7+1.7+0)/5 = 1.6 5 15 9.33 5.7 8.70 6.30 6 11 10.33 0.7 12.06 1.06 3-Month WMA MAD = (E4+E5+E6+E7+E8)/5 7 10 11.67 1.7 12.08 2.08 = (0.23+6.30+1.06+2.08+1.07)/5 = 2.15 8 12 12.00 0.0 10.93 1.07 9 11.00 11.22 The subscripts shown in calculations below, above and to the right are for the month number. For 3-Month Moving Average: For Weighted Moving Average (with 0.55, .33, .12): F4 = (D1+D2+D3)/3 = (8+12+7)/3 = 9.00 F4 = 0.12*D1+0.33*D2+0.55*D3 = 0.12*8+0.55*12+0.12*7 = 8.77 F5 = (D2+D3+D4)/3 = (12+7+9)/3 = 9.33 F5 = 0.12*D2+0.33*D3+0.55*D4 = 0.12*12+0.55*7+0.12*9 = 8.70 F6 = (D3+D4+D5)/3 = (7+9+15)/3 = 10.33 F6 = 0.12*D3+0.33*D4+0.55*D5 = 0.12*7+0.55*9+0.12*15 = 12.06 F7 = (D4+D5+D6)/3 = (9+15+11)/3 = 11.67 F7 = 0.12*D4+0.33*D5+0.55*D6 = 0.12*9+0.55*15+0.12*11 = 12.08 F8 = (D5+D6+D7)/3 = (15+11+10)/3 = 12.00 F8 = 0.12*D5+0.33*D6+0.55*D7 = 0.12*15+0.55*11+0.12*10 = 10.93 F9 = (D6+D7+D8)/3 = (11+10+12)/3 = 11.00 F9 = 0.12*D6+0.33*D7+0.55*D8 = 0.12*11+0.55*10+0.12*12 = 11.22 E t = E t = D t F t |D t - F t | F t |D t - F t |

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Problem #15-6 Exponentially Absolute Adjusted Absolute Smoothed Value Smoothed Value Month Demand Forecast Error Trend Forecast Error October 800 800.00 November 725 800.00 75.00 0.00 800.00 75.00 alpha = 0.3 December 630 777.50 147.50 -4.50 773.00 143.00 beta = 0.2 January 500 733.25 233.25 -12.45 720.80 220.80 February 645 663.28 18.28 -23.96 639.32 5.68 march 690 657.79 32.21 -20.26 637.53 52.47 April 730 667.45 62.55 -14.28 653.18 76.82 May 810 686.22 123.78 -7.67 678.55 131.45 June 1200 723.35 476.65 1.29 724.65 475.35 July 980 866.35 113.65 29.63 895.98 84.02 August 900.44 30.53 930.97 930.97 Exp. Smoothed MAPD =
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• Spring '10
• Regression Analysis, 1.6 3-Month, 1.60 2.15 Month, 8 12 7 9 15 11 10 12 9.00 9.33 10.33 11.67 12.00 11.00 0.0 5.7 0.7 1.7 0.0 8.77 8.70 12.06 12.08 10.93 11.22 0.23 6.30 1.06 2.08 1.07 3-Month, 10.0 34.0 0.4 30.3 23.2 11.1 8.3 3-Month, 75.10 3-Month

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