lecture05-sep19

# lecture05-sep19 - STAT 430 Probability Lecture 5 Fall, 2007...

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STAT 430 Probability Lecture 5 Fall, 2007

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Example: Which Box? Consider again the same three boxes as in the previous example. Suppose I pick a box. Then I pick a ball at random from the box and show you the ball. I offer a prize if you can guess correctly which box it came from. Which box would you guess if the ball drawn is white and what is your chance of guessing right? What if the ball drawn is black?
Example: Which Box? What is the optimal strategy for randomizing the boxes so that maximum probability of guessing right is the smallest? What is the optimal strategy for guessing without know how the boxes are randomly chosen?

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Three prisoners, A, B , and C are on death row. The governor decides to pardon one of the three and chooses at random the prisoner to pardon. He informs the warden of his choice but requests that the name be kept secret for a few days. The next day, A tries to get the warden to tell him who had been pardoned. The warden refuses. A then asks which of
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## This note was uploaded on 06/19/2010 for the course STAT 431 taught by Professor Stroud during the Fall '08 term at UPenn.

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lecture05-sep19 - STAT 430 Probability Lecture 5 Fall, 2007...

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