ch9_solutions

ch9_solutions - Topic 3 Decision Analysis(Part II Rather...

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Topic 3 Decision Analysis (Part II) Rather than relying on own experience, researches are usually carried out before the decisions are being made. P(A|B) = ) B ( P ) B A ( P i.e. ) B A ( P = P (B) P (A|B) Example for Baye’s Theorem (Question 3.33) Jinza Buro is going to help his brother who wants to open a food store. Peter believes that there is a 50-50 chance that his brother’s food store would be a success. Peter is considering doing a market research study. Based on historical data, there is a 0.8 probability that the marketing research will be favorable given a successful food store. Moreover, there is a 0.7 probability that the marketing research will be unfavorable given an unsuccessful food store. a) If the marketing research is favorable, what is Jinza’s revised probability of a successful food store for his brother? P (success) = P (fail) = P (favorable|success ) = P (unfavorable|fail ) = ******* P(Favorable Success) is the same as P(Success Favorable) P(Favorable | Success) is not the same as P(Success | Favorable)
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a. P (favorable
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This note was uploaded on 06/23/2010 for the course MS 2201 taught by Professor Rhrh46 during the Spring '10 term at Howard College.

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ch9_solutions - Topic 3 Decision Analysis(Part II Rather...

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