Graded Homework 25
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This homework covers moving averages and exponential smoothing, material that
can be found in your course packet on pages 119124.
Question #1
Fluctuations that occur fairly regularly within each year
would be contained in the
seasonal
component of time series.
The unpredictable or unsystematic component of a time series would be contained in
the
irregular
component of time series.
The traditional longterm, often irregular variation which is present in many
economic and financial data series is best described by which component of time
series analyis:
cyclical
.
You received a raw score of 100% on this question.
Question #2
The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an eightyear period
follows.
Year Cases of wine
1991 270
1992
356
1993
398
1994
456
1995
358
1996
500
1997 410
1998
376
A 3year moving average is to be constructed for wine sales.
The moving average that is associated with 1995 (recorded in the same row as 1995) is
438
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Question #3
The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Paso Robles winery in an eightyear period
follows.
Year Cases of wine
1991 270
1992
356
1993
398
1994
456
1995
358
1996
500
1997 410
1998
376
Exponential smoothing with a weight or smoothing constant of 0.3 will be used to
smooth the wine sales.
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 Spring '08
 Petry
 Time series analysis, 0.1%, raw score, Paso Robles

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