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Question #1
You would like to predict cigarette consumption for the year 2005. You know that you
can use exponential smoothing to create forecasts when the time series exhibits gradual
(not a sharp) trend, has no cyclical effects, and has no seasonal effects, and when you are
forecasting only one period beyond the existing data.
You are given the
data set
on the cigarette consumption from 1965 to 2004. Answer the
following questions.
1.
From the scatter plot you can conclude that:
2.
o
the series exhibits gradual (not a sharp) trend
o
the seriest exhibits a sharp change in trend
o
the series appears to have a cyclical component
o
the series does not appear to have a cyclical component
o
the series appears to have seasonal component
o
the series does not appear to have seasonal component
o
time series forecasting with exponential smoothing is
appropriate
o
time series forecasting with exponential smoothing is not
appropriate
3.
Using the smoothing constant of 0.8, the forecasted value for the cigarette
consumption in 2005 is
2700.4
Item 1: You made all of the correct selections.
Item 2: Your answer is within ±1% of the solution  correct.
You received a raw score of 100% on this question.
Question #2
This question is based on the example on slide 55 (page 132) of your course packet.
You are given the following quarterly
data
for hotel occupancy.
Forecasting with Indicator Variables
Using a model that includes indicator variables for the quarters, what is the test statistic
for testing whether or not the second quarter has a significant effect on hotel occupancy?
5.741339555
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This note was uploaded on 07/23/2010 for the course ECON 203 taught by Professor Petry during the Spring '08 term at University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign.
 Spring '08
 Petry

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