midterm study material-phil12

midterm study material-phil12 - Midterm Material that may...

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Midterm Material that may not be found in the readings
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Modality The modality of a statement describes a degree of confidence in its truth. A modality of a conclusion says something about the strength of the evidence available for that conclusion. Not all arguments explicitly indicate modalities, but many do. Adapted from Gary Jason’s Introduction to Logic , Ch. 3.
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Modality Adapted from Gary Jason’s Introduction to Logic , Ch. 3. Indicates lack of doubt, or certainty in the support provided by the evidence Indicates more doubt, or less confidence in the support surely certainly clearly perhaps maybe it is likely it’s possible probably it might be the case chances are almost certainly consequently it seems to be
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Modality There are two sorts of modality that might be relevant to arguments as we are analyzing them. Alethic modality - expresses modality pertaining to truth Deontic modality - expresses modality pertaining to action ‘Should’, ‘ought to’, ‘must’, etc. are used to express either sort.
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Modality Modality hints at intended inferential quality So, Julie must own an iPhone So, I probably will like pizza from that new place. But also, the actual success of an argument can be relative to the modality of the conclusion Adapted from Gary Jason’s Introduction to Logic , Ch. 3.
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Induction and Probability Inductive arguments will have a modality that imbues the conclusions with less than absolute certainty Many times they include terms like: probably, it is likely that, more likely than not, should, etc…. These terms express probabilities.
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Probability Probabilities are ratios They can be expressed in a wide variety of ways 14% 14/100 14:100 14 out of 100 .14 The probability of that happening is .14 14 times in 100 it’ll turn out that way .14 to 1, that’s what’ll happen That will be true 14% of the time The odds are 14 to 100 Pr( x ) = .14
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Types of Probability Statistical probability - the relative frequency; refers to thing or events as they are distributed in the world Inductive probability - the strength of the support for the conclusion from the premises, refers to weight of the evidence for the conclusion provided by the argument. Epistemic probability - the degree of confidence, refers to how sure we should be of a conclusion
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Epistemic Probability Inductive and epistemic probability both refer to what we ought to believe; they are both about what is supported. Inductive probability is a property of arguments. Epistemic probability is a property of statements.
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Epistemic Probability It could be rational to assign high epistemic probability to claims which are almost certainly false, if you are committed to the corresponding set of claims.
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Remember: variation, or subjectivity, in epistemic probabilities does not mean it is all just random, or just a matter of opinion. Epistemic probabilities are grounded by
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This note was uploaded on 07/28/2010 for the course PHIL Phil 12 taught by Professor Amndabrovold during the Spring '10 term at San Diego.

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midterm study material-phil12 - Midterm Material that may...

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