2005-MIE363-MID - University of Toronto Faculty of Applied...

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University of Toronto Faculty of Applied Science and Engineering Midterm, February 2005 MIE363S - Resource and Production Modelling Examiner - Chi-Guhn Lee Name: Student ID: Signature: 1
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For full or partial credit, you must show all work in a logical order without omitting any intermediate steps . After reading carefully, if you do not fully understand the problem statement, you can make assumptions as long as they are clearly stated. Assumptions that violate basic definition given in class and/or simplify the problem beyond its intended level of difficulty are not acceptable. No questions will be answered during the exam. 1. (30 points, Forecasting) The following is the demand for a cell phone at an outlet of Logers wireless during the past fifteen weeks: Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Demand x t 34 40 34 36 40 42 46 50 (a) (6 points) Suppose that you are at the end of period 4 and that you just observed the demand in period 4. Use the linear regression to make a forecast for the demand in period 5. (b) (6 points) Now you are at the end of period 5 and that you just observed the demand in period 5. Use the linear regression to make a forecast for the demand in period 6. (c) (6 points) Suppose that you are at the end of period 4 and that you just observed the demand in period 4. Use the linear regression to find the seed values for S t and G t and then make forecasts for period 5 using the double exponential smoothing with a smoothing parameters α = 0
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2005-MIE363-MID - University of Toronto Faculty of Applied...

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