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Unformatted text preview: University of Toronto Faculty of Applied Science and Engineering Midterm, February 2006 MIE363S - Resource and Production Modelling Examiner - Chi-Guhn Lee Name: Student ID: Signature: 1 For full or partial credit, you must show all work in a logical order without omitting any intermediate steps . After reading carefully, if you do not fully understand the problem statement, you can make assumptions as long as they are clearly stated. Assumptions that violate basic definition given in class and/or simplify the problem beyond its intended level of difficulty are not acceptable. 1. (30 points, Forecasting) WARP Shoe Factory sells hiking shoes. Quarterly demand for its most popular hiking shoes over the last three years has been as follows: Year 2003 2004 2005 Quarter 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Demand 25 120 40 60 30 140 60 80 35 150 55 90 (a) (7 points) Use an exponential smoothing with smoothing factor = 0 . 2 to develop a forecast for year 2005. (b) (7 points) Use a double exponential smoothing with smoothing factors = = . 2 to develop a forecast for year 2005.2 to develop a forecast for year 2005....
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- Spring '10