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Political Risk Services’
About “PRS” and the Coplin-O’Leary System™
Since 1979, the Coplin-O’Leary Country Risk Rating System™ has been recognized worldwide as the original
system for quantifying and rating political risk.
This system of independent risk assessment was developed by
Professors William D. Coplin and Michael K. O’Leary during 20 years of research at the Maxwell School of
Public Affairs, Syracuse University.
Originally the Political Risk Services division of Frost & Sullivan, Inc., and
then part of UK-based IBC Group (now “Informa”), the company has been independent since 1999.
formed and developed around the publication of the “Political Risk Services” or “Coplin-O’Leary” System™.
1992, the “Political Risk Services” company added another independent country risk rating system to its
offerings (International Country Risk Guide–details about ICRG methodology can be found at
www.ICRGonline.com) and in changed its name to “The PRS Group,” ultimately becoming The PRS Group, Inc.
Political Risk Services research has been based on the Coplin-O’Leary System™ and its applications over the
years, including 100 Country Reports, which are also grouped into Regional Services and the premier World
Also popular in the university setting is the academic version of our premier service, Political Risk
Coplin and O’Leary’s original research with the U.S. Department of State, the Central Intelligence
Agency, other government agencies, and major multinational corporations has become the most widely
accepted system of reliable and completely independent political risk forecasting.
All publications based on the
Coplin-O’Leary System™ and using the Coplin-O’Leary Country Risk Model™ are included in the “Political
Risk Services” product line, available in print, on CD-ROM, and online at www.prsonline.com
Political Risk Services – The Risk Model
Political Risk Services (PRS) provides a decision-focused political risk model with three industry
forecasts at the micro level.
The PRS system forecasts risk for investors in two stages, first
identifying the three most likely future regime scenarios for each country over two time periods and
then by assigning a probability to each scenario over each time period, 18 months and five years.
For each regime scenario, PRS’s experts then establish likely changes in the level of political
turmoil and 11 types of government intervention that affect the business climate.
After calculating consolidated scores for all regimes (100% of possibilities), the PRS system
converts these numbers into letter grades (on a scale from A+ to D-) for three investment areas:
financial transfers (banking and lending), foreign direct investment (e.g. retail, manufacturing,
mining), and exports to the host country market.
PRS’ unique system provides only industry