Coplin_OLeary_System

Coplin_OLeary_System - Political Risk Services Methodology...

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Reproduction without written permission of The PRS Group, Inc. is strictly prohibited Political Risk Services’ Methodology About “PRS” and the Coplin-O’Leary System™ Since 1979, the Coplin-O’Leary Country Risk Rating System™ has been recognized worldwide as the original system for quantifying and rating political risk. This system of independent risk assessment was developed by Professors William D. Coplin and Michael K. O’Leary during 20 years of research at the Maxwell School of Public Affairs, Syracuse University. Originally the Political Risk Services division of Frost & Sullivan, Inc., and then part of UK-based IBC Group (now “Informa”), the company has been independent since 1999. “PRS” formed and developed around the publication of the “Political Risk Services” or “Coplin-O’Leary” System™. In 1992, the “Political Risk Services” company added another independent country risk rating system to its offerings (International Country Risk Guide–details about ICRG methodology can be found at www.ICRGonline.com) and in changed its name to “The PRS Group,” ultimately becoming The PRS Group, Inc. Political Risk Services research has been based on the Coplin-O’Leary System™ and its applications over the years, including 100 Country Reports, which are also grouped into Regional Services and the premier World Service. Also popular in the university setting is the academic version of our premier service, Political Risk Yearbook. Coplin and O’Leary’s original research with the U.S. Department of State, the Central Intelligence Agency, other government agencies, and major multinational corporations has become the most widely accepted system of reliable and completely independent political risk forecasting. All publications based on the Coplin-O’Leary System™ and using the Coplin-O’Leary Country Risk Model™ are included in the “Political Risk Services” product line, available in print, on CD-ROM, and online at www.prsonline.com Political Risk Services – The Risk Model Political Risk Services (PRS) provides a decision-focused political risk model with three industry forecasts at the micro level. The PRS system forecasts risk for investors in two stages, first identifying the three most likely future regime scenarios for each country over two time periods and then by assigning a probability to each scenario over each time period, 18 months and five years. For each regime scenario, PRS’s experts then establish likely changes in the level of political turmoil and 11 types of government intervention that affect the business climate. After calculating consolidated scores for all regimes (100% of possibilities), the PRS system converts these numbers into letter grades (on a scale from A+ to D-) for three investment areas: financial transfers (banking and lending), foreign direct investment (e.g. retail, manufacturing, mining), and exports to the host country market. PRS’ unique system provides only industry
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This note was uploaded on 08/08/2010 for the course HLS 401 taught by Professor Dr.collier during the Fall '09 term at E. Kentucky.

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Coplin_OLeary_System - Political Risk Services Methodology...

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