Using_the_LAMP_Technique

Using_the_LAMP_Technique - Using the LAMP (Lockwood...

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Using the LAMP (Lockwood Analytic Method for Prediction) Technique The Lockwood Analytic Method for Prediction (LAMP) technique is a systematic method for predicting short-term, unique behaviors (vice continuous or recurring, cyclical behaviors) (see Lockwood and O’Brien Lockwood 1993). Using primarily qualitative empirical data, LAMP allows the analyst to predict the most likely outcomes for specific research questions. LAMP analyses are anchored in rational choice theory, synthesizing tenets of rational choice with tenets of other predictive analytic techniques such as Alternative Futures and the Delphi Method. LAMP is an excellent technique to use when the research question involves multiple actors, who have multiple courses of action, and where there are multiple scenarios involved. The steps of the LAMP process are presented below along with an example of using LAMP to predict the future of the Colombian Peace Process after the 2002 Colombian Presidential Elections. Step 1. Determine the issue (behavior) for which you are trying to predict the most likely future. What is your specific research question? (Note: Keep your questions precise and limited. Questions that include too many actors, too many courses of action, or too many major scenarios will make the number of permutations that must be analyzed too large for the LAMP technique to be easily used.) Example: What will happen to the Colombian peace process negotiations between the Government of Colombia (GOC) and Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarios de Colombia (FARC) narco-guerilla group after the 2002 Colombian presidential elections? Step 2. Specify the “actors” involved in the issue. (Note: This tips you that LAMP is principally an agency or “free will” approach using rational choice. Step 3 ensures that not only the agency factors, but also structural factors are included in the analysis.) Actors for this example: GOC, FARC, US Government (USG), Autodefenses Unidos de Colombia (AUC), International Community (led primarily by the United Nations and European Union). Note: Like other rational choice analyses, it is assumed that all actors are “unitary actors,” i.e., there is one leader or group of leaders that determine the actor’s behavior. While this example also makes that assumption, in fact the FARC and AUC are more loose coalitions of violent groups that do not always act in a unitary or “rational” fashion. Step 3. Perform an in-depth study of how each actor perceives the issue in question. (Note: This is the most difficult and time-consuming part of the analysis. It usually requires both a literature review and fieldwork. The analyst must study all the historical, structural (social, political, and economic), and psychological/ motivational issues affecting the actors involved. Here is also where you must avoid “mirror- imaging,” taking measures to reduce the effects of your own biased “lens” about the issues or actors involved.) 1
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Using_the_LAMP_Technique - Using the LAMP (Lockwood...

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