feb2 - STA 414/2104 S: February 2 2010 Administration I HW...

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Unformatted text preview: STA 414/2104 S: February 2 2010 Administration I HW due February 11 by 1 pm I Thursday, February 4: TA Li Li has office hours 1-2 (in class), 2-3 in SS 6027A I Chapter 3: 3.1, 3.2 (except 3.2.4), 3.3 (except 3.3.3), 3.4 (except 3.4.4), 3.5.1 I Chapter 4: 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 (except 4.3.1, 4.3.2), 4.4.0, 4.4.1, 4.4.2 I My office hours are Tuesday 3-4 and Thursday 2-3 (although cancelled on Thursday Feb 4) I http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/ fulltext/123233977/HTMLSTART 1/30 STA 414/2104 S: February 2 2010 A few points on logistic regression I Logistic regression: Pr ( G = k | X ) linear on the logit scale I Linear discriminant analysis: Pr ( G = k | X ) Pr ( X | G = k ) Pr ( G = k ) I Theory: LDA more efficient if X really is normal I Practice: LR usually viewed as more robust, but HTF claim prediction errors are very similar I See: last slide of Jan 26 for calculation of prediction errors on training data I Data: LR is more complicated with K > 2; use multinom in the MASS library I Lasso version of logistic regression described in 4.4.4 2/30 STA 414/2104 S: February 2 2010 ... logistic regression I Deviance in a generalized linear model (such as LR), is- 2 log L ( ) + constant I Comparing deviances from two model fits is a log-likelihood ratio test that the corresponding parameters are 0 I AIC compares instead- 2 log L ( ) + 2 p I for Binomial data, but not for binary data, residual deviance provides a test of goodness of fit of the binomial model 3/30 STA 414/2104 S: February 2 2010 Flexible modelling using basis expansions (Chapter 5) I Linear regression: y = X + , ( , 2 ) I Smooth regression: y = f ( X ) + I f ( X ) = E ( Y | X ) to be specified I Flexible linear modelling f ( X ) = M m = 1 m h m ( X ) I This is called a linear basis expansion , and h m is the m th basis function I For example if X is one-dimensional: f ( X ) = + 1 X + 2 X 2 , or f ( X ) = + 1 sin ( X ) + 2 cos ( X ) , etc. I Simple linear regression has h 1 ( X ) = 1, h 2 ( X ) = X . Several other examples on p.140 4/30 STA 414/2104 S: February 2 2010 I Polynomial fits: h j ( x ) = x j , j = ,..., m I Fit using linear regression with design matrix X , where X ij = h j ( x i ) I Justification is that any smooth function can be approximated by a polynomial expansion (Taylor series) I Can be difficult to fit numerically, as correlation between columns can be large I May be useful locally, but less likely to work over the range of X I Idea: fit polynomials locally in X I Need to be careful not to overfit, since we are using only a fraction of the data 5/30 STA 414/2104 S: February 2 2010 Piecewise polynomials I piecewise constant basis functions h 1 ( X ) = I ( X < 1 ) , h 2 ( X ) = I ( 1 X < 2 ) , h 3 ( x ) = I ( 2 X ) I fitting by local averaging I piecewise linear basis functions , with constraints h 1 ( X ) = 1 , h 2 ( X ) = X h 3 ( X ) = ( X- 1 ) + , h 4 ( X ) = ( X- 2 ) + I windows defined by knots 1 , 2 ,......
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feb2 - STA 414/2104 S: February 2 2010 Administration I HW...

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