Outline- lecture 9- crisis

Outline- lecture 9- crisis - Crisis Behavior Why study...

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Crisis Behavior - Why study international crisis? Which crises lead to war? - Need to look at decision making under crisis. If we want to avoid war, we need to improve crisis management skills - Situational vs. behavioral variables - What is an international crisis? Databases that define and quantify militarized crisis (MIDs) - Hermann uses classic definition: 3 components: o Surprise o High level of threat o Short decision time (a sense of urgency) When combined, we have an international crisis. Classic crisis= high threat, little time to react, high level of surprise. This type of crisis is most likely to produce major war. - The decision cube, based on quantities of the three variables - The Cuban missile crisis: the classical study of crisis behavior. - Why does JFK opt for a blockade (from all the five possible American responses)? - Like levels of analysis, there are competing explanations: Four models. o
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Outline- lecture 9- crisis - Crisis Behavior Why study...

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