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Outline- lecture 10- deterrence

Outline- lecture 10- deterrence - We maintain the peace...

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Outline: Lecture 10 Cognitive models of crisis decision making: - The effects of stress: reduction in cognitive complexity, increased cognitive rigidity, reduced time horizon (curvilinear relation). - Group processes: Group-think, risky decisions - The use of historical analogies - The fundamental attribution error - Prospect Theory: realm of losses, realm of gains and risk taking The nuclear era: - The ‘doomsday clock’ (nuclear clock) Nuclear strategy: - Counter-value vs. counter-force - Offense/Defense balance & the Propensity for War (Schlieffen Plan) - MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) - The nuclear ‘trinity’ - The Doomsday Machine - Is nuclear deterrence credible? (Yes Prime Minister) Deterrence: - Reagan: “Deterrence’ means simply this: making sure any adversary who thinks about attacking the United States, or our allies, or our vital interest, concludes that the risks to him outweigh any potential gains. Once he understands that, he won't attack.
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Unformatted text preview: We maintain the peace through our strength; weakness only invites aggression.” -Conditions needed for the nuclear deterrence to work-Direct deterrence vs. extended deterrence-Conventional vs. nuclear deterrence -American nuclear strategy over the years: Nuclear monopoly massive retaliation flexible response Detante SDI -How do we know if deterrence works? -The nuclear taboo?-1 st wave vs. 2 nd wave of proliferation -Arms Control v. Disarmament (1963- Partial Test Ban Treaty; 1968- NPT (Atoms for Peace); 1972 SALT I (Strategic Arms Limitation Talks; ABM treaty); 1987- INF (Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces)-Arms control as a game of prisoner’s dilemma Questions: Is proliferation a bad thing (Mearsheimer)? Is the nuclear age substantially different than previous periods of international relations? Terrorism and the question of deterrability; What is Waltz’s position regarding nuclear deterrence?...
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