SanjoyMahajanIntro-01-1

SanjoyMahajanIntro-01-1 - Order-of-Magnitude Physics...

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Unformatted text preview: Order-of-Magnitude Physics Understanding the World with Dimensional Analysis, Educated Guesswork, and White Lies Sanjoy Mahajan University of Cambridge Sterl Phinney California Institute of Technology Peter Goldreich Institute for Advanced Study Copyright c circlecopyrt 19952006 Send comments to sanjoy@mrao.cam.ac.uk Draft of 2006-03-20 23:51:19 [rev 22987c8b4860] ii Contents 1 Wetting your feet 1 1.1 Armored cars 1 1.2 Cost of lighting Pasadena, California 9 1.3 Pasadenas budget 11 1.4 Diaper production 12 1.5 Meteorite impacts 14 1.6 What you have learned 16 1.7 Exercises 17 2 Some financial math 18 2.1 Rule of 72 18 2.2 Mortgages: A first approximation 19 2.3 Realistic mortgages 21 2.4 Short-term limit 22 2.5 Long-term limit 23 2.6 What you have learned 24 2.7 Exercises 25 Bibliography 26 2006-03-20 23:51:19 [rev 22987c8b4860] 1 1 Wetting your feet Most technical education emphasizes exact answers. If you are a physi- cist, you solve for the energy levels of the hydrogen atom to six dec- imal places. If you are a chemist, you measure reaction rates and concentrations to two or three decimal places. In this book, you learn complementary skills. You learn that an approximate answer is not merely good enough; its often more useful than an exact answer. When you approach an unfamiliar problem, you want to learn first the main ideas and the important principles, because these ideas and principles structure your understanding of the problem. It is easier to refine this understanding than to create the refined analysis in one step. The adjective in the title of the book, order of magnitude , reflects our emphasis on approximation. An order of magnitude is a factor of 10. To be within an order of magnitude, or to estimate a quantity to order of magnitude, means that your estimate is roughly within a factor of 10 on either side. This chapter introduces the art of determining such approximations. Writers block is broken by writing; estimators block is broken by estimating. So we begin our study of approximation using everyday examples, such as estimating budgets or annual production of diapers. These warmups flex your estimation muscles, which may have lain dormant through many years of traditional education. Everyday estimations provide practice for our later problems, and also provide a method to sanity check information that you see. Sup- pose that a newspaper article says that the annual cost of health care in the United States will soon surpass $1 trillion. Whenever you read any such claim, you should automatically think: Does this num- ber seem reasonable? Is it far too small, or far too large? You need methods for such estimations, methods that we develop in several examples. We dedicate the first example to physicists who need em- ployment outside of physics....
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SanjoyMahajanIntro-01-1 - Order-of-Magnitude Physics...

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