IR 202- Presentation- FP Crises

IR 202- Presentation- FP Crises - Foreign Policy Crises...

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Foreign Policy Crises -derives from a change in a state's internal or external environment. -Brecher (2000)- "occurs when the highest level decision makers of the state actor experience: 1) a threat to one or more basic values, along with an awareness of finite time for response to the value threat, and a heightened probability of involvement in military hostilities." 1) value threat 2) finite time 3) probability of war are three necesary and sufficient conditions for a foreign policy crisis. -Some studies suggest that more successful outcomes (winning and settling) are related to the duration of a crisis. Prolonged crises or protracted rivalries are associated with a higher probability of the less successful outcomes of escalation and war (colaresi and Thompson (2002, Brecher and James 1988). -Facing intense stress and pressure under crisis, the normal/usual determinants of state behavior may be strengthened or impaired. -Many international crises in the 20th century erupted within a protracted conflict (PC). Others occured outside that setting; that is, they emerged in an environment without the prior condition of prolonged dispute over one or more issues and without the spillover effects of cumulative crises between the same adversaries. Pc= 3 intl crises btwn pair of adversaries over one or more recurring issues during period of 5 yrs. -Crisis is catalyzed by a behavrioral act or an event, this act or event, the trigger to an actor=level crisis. Between Peace and War- Characteristics of FP crisis: perception of threat, heightened anxieties on the part of decision-makers, the expectation of possible violence, the belief that important or far-reaching decisions are required and must be made on the basis of incomplete information in a stressful environment. Most scholars agree that crisis is an acute rather than chronic pheonomenon and that the above-mentioned characteristics make crisis-decision- making different from the process by which foreign policy is normally formulated. 3 criteria for crisis:
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IR 202- Presentation- FP Crises - Foreign Policy Crises...

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