1%20Climate%20Change%20-%204%20Observation

1%20Climate%20Change%20-%204%20Observation -...

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The Economics of Climate Change–C 175 Climate Change Observation Spring 09–UC Berkeley – Traeger 1 Climate Change 67
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limate Change The Economics of Climate Change–C 175 Climate Change d df ii t i Broad definition: IPCC: Change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. ore narrow definition: More narrow definition: Change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is addition to natural variability in addition to natural variability Spring 09–UC Berkeley – Traeger 1 Climate Change 68
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Non anthropogenic climate change, Looong run The Economics of Climate Change–C 175 The Earth changes its position/tilt with respect to the sun periodically. The picture above explains changes in a 41 000 year period. Other changes takes lace in a 100 000 year cycle and a 400 000 year cycle as well as shorter cycles place in a 100 000 year cycle and a 400 000 year cycle as well as shorter cycles. These cycles are called Milankovitch cycles. Spring 09–UC Berkeley – Traeger 1 Climate Change 69
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Non anthropogenic climate change, short run The Economics of Climate Change–C 175 Solar sun spots (disturbance of the solar magnetic field ) increase irradiance (and the solar constant), period 11 years p y Solar constant varies ~ 1.3 W/m^2 Source: http://www.windows.ucar.edu/ tour/link=/sun/atmosphere/ sunspots.html Spring 09–UC Berkeley – Traeger 1 Climate Change 70
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Temperature change observations, looong term The Economics of Climate Change–C 175 Pattern related to above periodic changes of forcing (Milankovitch cycles) However, calculating the direct forcing implied by these cyclic effects alone is not enough to explain these temperature changes here would have to be feedback effects (this an(!) ‘ice age theory’) There would have to be feedback effects (this is an(!) ice age theory ) Spring 09–UC Berkeley – Traeger 1 Climate Change 71
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…before looking for possible indications of feedback… The Economics of Climate Change–C 175 How do they actually get temperatures hundreds of thousands years back ?!
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